紐時賞析／對俄反攻不利 烏克蘭暫停以調整戰術
After Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy
對俄反攻不利 烏克蘭暫停以調整戰術
In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s grueling counteroffensive, as much as 20% of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed, according to American and European officials. The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians.
美國與歐洲官員指出，烏克蘭艱困的反攻作戰前兩周，送往戰地的武器高達20%受損或毀壞。這些損失包括戰車、裝甲運兵車等部分強大的西方作戰機具，是烏克蘭賴以擊退俄軍的軍備。
The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10% in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come.
官員表示，該項驚人的損失率在後續幾周降到約10%，使得更多軍隊和機具得以留存，以備進行烏克蘭方面宣稱尚未發動的主要攻勢。
Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire.
能有這樣的改善，部分原因是烏克蘭已改變戰術，加強聚焦在透過火砲和長射程飛彈來消耗俄國部隊，而非挺進敵方的地雷區和砲火當中。
But that good news obscures some grim realities. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just 5 of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.
好消息的背後卻隱藏著某些殘酷現實。損失會趨緩，是因為烏軍苦於俄軍的堅實防禦，反攻行動本身就放慢，在部分地區甚至暫停。而且盡管承受這些損失，烏克蘭原本希望推進60英里，以便進軍至南方海域並將俄軍一分為二，如今進度卻只有5英里。
Russia had many months to prepare for the counteroffensive, and the front is littered with mines, tank traps and dug-in troops, while Russian reconnaissance drones and attack helicopters fly overhead with increasing frequency.
俄國有數個月時間準備因應烏克蘭反攻，如今前線遍布地雷、戰車陷阱和掘壕固守的部隊，同時俄軍的無人偵察機和攻擊直升機也更加頻繁地掠過天際。
Given those fortifications, experts say, it is not surprising that Ukraine would sustain relatively severe losses in the early stages of the campaign.
專家表示，考量到那些防禦措施，烏克蘭在作戰初步階段會承受相對嚴重的損失，並不令人意外。
Last week, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, acknowledged that there had been a brief pause in operations some weeks ago but blamed it on a lack of equipment and munitions.
上周烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基承認，數周前作戰行動曾短暫暫停，但他將其歸咎於缺乏裝備和彈藥。
American officials acknowledged that pause and said the Ukrainians had begun moving again, but more deliberately, more adept at navigating minefields and mindful of the casualty risks.
美國官員坦承確有過暫停，並表示烏克蘭方面已再度開始行動，但變得更加謹慎，度過地雷區時更加熟練，也更留意人員傷亡風險。
Military experts have long said the first 15 miles of the counteroffensive would be the hardest, as attacking troops generally need three times more power — whether in weapons, personnel or both — than defending forces.
軍事專家一向表示，反攻作戰最艱困的就是前15英里，因為進攻部隊通常需要三倍於防守部隊的戰力，不論武器、人員，或兩者皆是。
Military analysts cautioned it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary-general.
軍事分析師提醒，要對這波反攻做出最終論斷為時過早。歐洲外交關係協會國防專家、北大西洋公約組織前助理秘書長葛蘭德表示，「這並不表示這次行動敗局已定」。
文／Lara Jakes, Andrew E. Kramer, Eric Schmitt 譯／高詣軒
Source: 聯合新聞網
