Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Philadelphia Phillies
Our beloved ‘Ners enter this mid week series with the Philidephia Phillies after taking 2 out of 3 from the Cardinals. The Phillies enter the series hot, having won 7 of their last 10 and fresh off of taking three straight against the Rockies. However despite the recent success, the Phillies have struggled to start the year sitting at 11-12 heading into the series, and 4th in NL East. This will be the 5th straight interleague series for the Mariners; they have yet to play an AL team besides the Angels and the Guardians.
At a Glance Mariners Phillies Mariners Phillies Game 1 Tuesday, April 25 | 3:40 pm LHP Marco Gonzales LHP Bailey Falter 43% 57% Game 2 Wednesday, April 26 | 3:40 pm RHP Logan Gilbert RHP Taijuan Walker 48% 52% Game 3 Thursday, April 27 | 10:05 am RHP George Kirby LHP Matt Strahm 47% 53%
Team Overview Overview Phillies Mariners Edge Overview Phillies Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 106 (5th in NL) 107 (4th in AL) Mariners Fielding (OAA) -33 (14th) 1 (10th) Mariners Starting Pitching (FIP-) 87 (2nd) 106 (8th) Phillies Bullpen (FIP-) 91 (3rd) 95 (7th) Phillies
The Phillies, much like the Mariners, are off to a slow start, sitting fourth in the NL East. They’ve begun to surge recently, coming into the series on a three game winning streak but it remains to be seen if they can keep this pace up against more competitive teams. So far, their offense has been great, top 5 in the majors in most offensive categories. The pitching, however, has left a lot to be desired. Both Arron Nola and Zach Wheeler have struggled to start the year, and the bullpen, outside of Jose Alverado, has had its own issues. On top of that, the Phillies continue to struggle with their defense; the addition of Brandon Marsh at last year’s trade deadline helped some, but the Phillies still remain close to the bottom half of the league in OAA. The offense has kept them in games so far this season, but the pitching will need to step up if the Phillies hope to make a deep run again.
Phillies Lineup Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Bryson Stott 2B L 466 19.1% 7.7% 0.124 83 Trea Turner SS R 708 18.5% 6.4% 0.169 128 Kyle Schwarber DH L 669 29.9% 12.9% 0.286 128 Nick Castellanos RF R 558 23.3% 5.2% 0.126 94 Brandon Marsh CF L 461 34.3% 6.1% 0.139 89 J.T. Realmuto C R 562 21.2% 7.3% 0.202 128 Alec Bohm 1B R 631 17.4% 4.9% 0.118 98 Jake Cave LF L 177 27.7% 6.2% 0.171 81 Edmundo Sosa 3B R 190 26.3% 2.6% 0.142 82
First and foremost the Phillies can straight up hit, currently sitting top 5 in baseball in OPS, Slugging and Average, and sitting 6th in the league in OBP. It would be a mistake to take this line up lightly, even with the notable absence of two-time MVP Bryce Harper and their long-time starting first baseman Rhys Hoskins. The Phillies added Trea Turner over the offseason, who has followed up a spectacular WBC performance with a decent start to the season, slashing .293/.340/.434 and posting a wRC+ of 106. Hopefully Turner will not continue the tradition of WBC stars crushing the Mariners that Shohei Ohtani and Lars Nootbarr seem to have established.
Alongside Turner the Phillies are also returning fellow WBC team members Kyle Schwarber and J.T Realmuto. Both are supreme hitters who only add to an already dangerous lineup. More concerning still is Schwarber has seemingly dropped three points from his strikeout rate from last year and added two points to his walk rate, while it’s still too early to tell if this will remain a trend for him over the remainder of the season a more discerning eye from Schwaber could spell trouble for a struggling Mariners pitching staff over the course of the series.
The biggest wild cards for the Phillies are going to be the two young guns on the roster, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. The latter started the year with a 17-game hitting streak. If his strong performance continues batting at the top of the order, Stott could be a real table setter for Schwarber and the rest of the lineup. Bohm had a rough go of it early last year, including being caught up in a media firestorm after getting caught saying “I (expletive) hate this place (Philadelphia)” on camera after making multiple errors in the same game. He received sarcastic cheers and claps from fans at Citizens Bank Park for making a routine play at third following two throwing errors. All seems to be forgiven now following a World Series run and a hot start to the season. The third year player seems to have taken a massive step forward and become a core contributing member of the lineup. So far this year Bohm has dropped his strikeout by a point and raised his walk rate by 4, while also slashing .302/.375/.453. Lets see if one of the best lineups in the NL can outlast some of the best pitchers in the AL.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
LHP Bailey Falter IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 84 21.2% 4.9% 14.4% 31.7% 3.86 4.65 Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Rate Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ Four-seam 31.2% 91.4 2056 105 90 104 Sinker 33.1% 91.0 1783 67 141 107 Changeup 4.0% 83.1 1567 Curveball 16.9% 76.6 2125 93 110 66 Slider 14.8% 83.5 1967 74 94 78
There are very few pitchers who can match Logan Gilbert’s elite release extension; Bailey Falter comes pretty close. Releasing the ball closer to the plate imparts additional “effective” velocity, essentially cutting down the time a batter has to react to a pitch. That’s helped Falter’s otherwise unremarkable fastball play up over its raw characteristics. On average, he’s adding around two miles per hour in effective velocity to his pitches thanks to his release point. He rounds out his repertoire with a pair of breaking balls and a rarely used changeup. None of his secondary offerings are standout pitches, so he’s really leaned into his fastball to find success.
RHP Taijuan Walker IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 157 1/3 20.3% 6.9% 9.6% 46.2% 3.49 3.65 Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Rate Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ Four-seam 29.6% 93.7 2149 99 100 110 Sinker 11.2% 92.9 2022 86 70 77 Cutter 6.6% 88.5 2328 95 49 91 Splitter 27.6% 88.8 1447 126 95 95 Curveball 8.7% 75.0 2226 85 85 58 Slider 16.3% 84.9 2403 107 82 106
A veteran now entering his 11th season in the big leagues, Taijuan Walker posted the best season of his career last year. His strikeout rate was a bit below his career norms, but he also lowered his walk rate, leading to an improvement in strikeout-to-walk ratio and a career-best 3.65 FIP. He hasn’t changed too much since his days as a Mariners prospect; his fastball and splitter still form the foundation of his arsenal, but he’s finally found a breaking ball to pair with those two pitches. In the past he had been throwing a slow curveball and hard cutter, but neither of those pitches were all that effective. This year, he’s added a sweeper to his repertoire and the early results have been very promising.
LHP Matt Strahm IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 44 2/3 26.9% 8.8% 9.4% 36.8% 3.83 3.72 Pitch Frequency Velocity Spin Rate Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ Four-seam 38.3% 94.2 2298 107 138 117 Sinker 14.5% 94.0 2265 111 70 80 Changeup 9.2% 88.2 2157 75 Curveball 17.0% 82.7 2668 121 64 189 Slider 21.0% 88.6 2391 108 79 101
A reliever for nearly all of his major league career, the Phillies signed Matt Strahm this offseason with the intent to use him out of their bullpen, but early season injuries have forced him into the starting rotation. As a prospect, he was projected as a starter because of his deep repertoire but was possibly miscast as a relief arm after earning his breakthrough into the big leagues as a member of the Royals bullpen. Finally given a chance to work out of the rotation again, he has responded with four solid starts, including a career-high 11 strikeouts in his last outing.
The Big Picture:
The AL West Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Rangers 14-8 0.636 -- W-L-W-W-L Astros 12-11 0.522 2.5 W-W-W-W-L Angels 11-12 0.478 3.5 L-W-L-W-L Mariners 10-12 0.455 4.0 L-L-W-W-L Athletics 5-18 0.217 9.5 L-W-L-L-W
The Rangers won two of three against the A’s over the weekend but started off a series against the Reds with an ugly walk-off loss. Their bullpen, which had been a strength to start the season, allowed three runs to score across the final two innings with two of the runs scoring on back-to-back bases loaded walks. Not to be outdone, the Angels also lost in ugly fashion last night, dropping a game to the A’s in extra innings. The tying run in that game also scored on a bases loaded walk. The Astros joined the loss party yesterday, falling prey to the unbeatable Rays in the first game of a three-game series in Tampa.
Source: Lookout Landing
