NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Apr. 26): What Will Jimmy Butler Do Next?
Wednesday features a four-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The first-round series between the Kings and Warriors has been highly entertaining so far, splitting the first four contests at two games apiece. Unfortunately, De’Aaron Fox suffered a fractured left index finger in Game 4, but he told reporters that he will suit up in a pivotal Game 5.
That injury could impact his effectiveness, but Fox has been breathtaking through the first four games of this series. He’s racked up at least 53.25 DraftKings points in all four games, including 59.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. That was the game where he reportedly suffered the injury, but he was still able to score 38 points in just under 40 minutes of playing time.
This matchup is expected to be easily the highest-scoring of the day, with the 234.5-point total ranking first on the slate by 12 full points. The spread also sits at just 1.5, so this is the perfect type of contest to target for fantasy purposes.
Value
Austin Reaves has blossomed into an excellent role player for the Lakers, and he was instrumental in their overtime win in Game 4. He racked up 38.5 DraftKings points in 41.6 minutes, his second game with at least 38.25 DraftKings points in this series. Overall, Reaves has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 35 minutes in our NBA Models. That makes him a solid value at just $5,800.
Fast Break
The series between the Cavs and Knicks has been centered around a slow pace and defense. That’s caused Jalen Brunson’s price tag to dip to $7,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. That has proven to be too cheap for Brunson during his tenure with the Knicks, with the point guard averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.18 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Jrue Holiday stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%. Holiday struggled in his last contest, finishing with just 36.4 FanDuel points, but he shot a subpar 6-19 from the field. He’s averaged 1.28 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s an appealing buy-low target in a must-win contest.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Cavaliers were pretty much run out of the gym in their two games in New York, scoring just 79 and 93 points in their two losses. Donovan Mitchell was a big reason for their offensive woes, shooting a paltry 14-37 from the field and 2-12 from 3-point range. He also had six turnovers in both contests, so he unsurprisingly failed to return value in both games.
However, Mitchell was much more effective during the first two contests in Cleveland, including a 66.25 DraftKings points masterpiece in Game 1. That makes him an interesting buy-low target at $8,700. The Knicks are not a fun matchup, but Mitchell’s price tag has decreased by more than -$1,000 since the start of the series. He’s currently projected for more than 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and his average of 1.26 DraftKings per minute over the past month leads all shooting guards on Wednesday’s slate.
Value
Jordan Poole hasn’t played a ton of minutes for the Warriors of late, but he did see at least 26.1 minutes in each of the past two contests. That’s more than enough to make him a viable option at his current price tag. Poole racked up at least 32.5 DraftKings points in both of those contests, and he’s averaged an outstanding 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Poole has been priced under $6,000 in just 15 previous games this season, and he’s averaged 31.55 DraftKings points in those contests.
Fast Break
Desmond Bane is coming off a big game on Monday, racking up 48.9 FanDuel points in 46.8 minutes. He should be looking at another monster workload with the Grizzlies facing elimination on Wednesday, and Bane has averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 31% in two of his past three games, which represents a sizable increase from his season average of 26.1%.
Klay Thompson has yet to catch fire in this series, but perhaps Game 5 will change things. Klay is capable of getting hotter than anyone on the planet, and he’s historically provided some of his best performances in the Warriors’ most important games. He provides a comparable ceiling projection to guys like Bane and Khris Middleton at a slightly cheaper salary.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler is known for delivering huge games on the biggest stages, but he took things to another level in Game 4. The Heat were down 12 points with less than six minutes to go in the fourth quarter, and he willed them to a comeback win and a 3-1 series lead. His 56 points were the most in franchise history for a postseason game for a franchise that featured all-time greats like LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.
What does he have in store for an encore? I wouldn’t expect another 73.25 DraftKings points, but he’s certainly capable of returning value at his current salary. He’s scored at least 47.25 DraftKings points in three of four playoff contests, including a game where he played just 28.2 minutes. As long as this game stays competitive, expect another strong showing from Playoff Jimmy.
Value
This series couldn’t be going much worse for Dillon Brooks. He “poked the bear” after winning Game 2 by calling LeBron James old, and he proceeded to shoot just 3-13 from the field before getting ejected in Game 3. He followed that up with another subpar performance in Game 4, and his team is now facing elimination at home in Game 5.
Still, it’s hard to find cheap players who have the potential to play big minutes during the postseason, and Brooks fits that description on Wednesday. He racked up just under 41 minutes in Game 4, and he posted a usage rate of at least 30.2% in Games 2 and 3. Overall, Brooks has averaged a respectable 0.81 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he has the potential to be one of the better values of the day if he sees another 35+ minutes.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Brooks’ fantasy prospects:
Fast Break
Caris LeVert has played at least 35.3 minutes in three straight games, and he’s started each of the past two. He’s scored at least 27.5 DraftKings points in all three contests, resulting in a positive Plus/Minus in each. His price tag has remained very reasonable at $5,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a 78% Bargain Rating.
Andrew Wiggins has shown no signs of rust for the Warriors, despite missing roughly the final two months of the regular season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four playoff contests, including 43.5 DraftKings points in his last game. Wiggins was arguably the Warriors’ second-best player during last year’s title run, and they’ll need that level of production from him to repeat this season.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo returned to the Bucks’ lineup in Game 4 after missing most of the first three games of this series. He showed no real signs of rust, racking up 65.5 DKFP thanks to 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 13 assists across 38.5 minutes. His usage rate was also at just 31.0% in that contest, which was well below his league-leading mark of 38.8% during the regular season. Giannis might regress a bit in the assist department on Wednesday, but he should make up for it with some additional scoring.
While Giannis is in play every time he takes the floor, his current price tag is absolutely egregious. He’s the best producer in fantasy, averaging 1.80 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 2.0 over the past month. There is no scenario where he should be priced at less than $11,000, and even that is still probably too cheap. He’s scored at least 63.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he played less than 33 minutes in two of them. In an elimination contest, it’s hard to imagine him not approaching 40 minutes on Wednesday, giving Giannis easily the top ceiling on the slate.
Value
Things have not gone as planned for Julius Randle during the playoffs. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in all four contests, including just 12.5 DraftKings points over 27.3 minutes in Game 4. Randle didn’t struggle with foul trouble in that contest, so the lack of playing time is definitely concerning.
However, Randle’s price tag has dipped to just $6,900 on DraftKings, and it’s hard not to be intrigued at that figure. He was routinely priced above $10,000 during the regular season, so this represents a massive buy-low opportunity. Randle is expected to return to around 33 minutes in Game 5, and he’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute for the year. If he can come close to those numbers, he’ll have the chance to return massive value.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. managed 43.3 FanDuel points in his last contest, despite shooting a pedestrian 5-15 from the field. He made up for it with 14 rebounds and five blocked shots, and Jackson is capable of swatting shots like no one else in basketball. He’s averaged 1.33 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he has the potential for a bigger performance with some improved scoring efficiency.
Rui Hachimura is worth some consideration as a value option on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He struggled in Game 4, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his three previous playoff contests. Hachimura has also increased his production to 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models.
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NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has been pretty well neutralized by the Warriors during this series. He’s been held to 43.5 DraftKings points or fewer in all four games, despite averaging 48.28 DraftKings points during the regular season.
That said, Sabonis is still seeing plenty of playing time in this series, and he averaged an excellent 1.39 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season. He’s also been priced down to $9,300, and Sabonis has only been priced below $10,000 on 35 previous occasions this year.
Sabonis doesn’t stand out as a priority stud target, but that should result in minimal ownership on this slate. That makes him an interesting tournament pivot.
Value
Mitchell Robinson is basically a non-factor on offense, with his only real value coming on dunks. However, he’s had a strong impact on this series on the glass and on defense. He’s coming off his best performance in Game 4, finishing with a double-double and 32.75 DraftKings points. He’s a threat for another cheap double-double on Wednesday, making him the best option for those spending down at the position.
Fast Break
Xavier Tillman has carried a monster load for the shorthanded Grizzlies’ frontcourt during the postseason. He’s played at least 39.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s logged at least 30.0 DraftKings points in three straight. He’s an outstanding option at $5,500 on DraftKings, given his Bargain Rating of 96%.
Jarrett Allen struggled mightily in the two games in New York, but perhaps going back to Cleveland will improve his numbers. He posted 37.5 and 38.5 DraftKings points in his two home playoff contests, and he’s played at least 34.8 minutes in all four games. Allen has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s a prime candidate for some positive regression.
Source: Fantasy Labs
