Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
If the Mariners were to choose just a few weekends to fire on all cylinders, this one would be a good option. With staff ace Luis Castillo and rookie phenom Bryce Miller bookending the series and the Rangers six and a half games ahead of the M’s in the AL West, these games present an opportunity to gain ground efficiently. The two teams won’t face each other again until the last two weeks of the regular season (seven of the M’s last ten scheduled games are against Texas). The first game of this weekend’s series is also MLB’s league-wide Lou Gehrig day, an opportunity to raise awareness about the impacts of ALS in baseball and beyond and to support the work toward better treatment and cure.
At a Glance Mariners Rangers Mariners Rangers Game 1 Friday, June 2 | 5:05 pm RHP Luis Castillo RHP Jon Gray 52% 48% Game 2 Saturday, June 3 | 5:05 pm LHP Marco Gonzales LHP Andrew Heaney 41% 59% Game 3 Sunday, June 4 | 11:35 am RHP Bryce Miller RHP Nathan Eovaldi 43% 57%
Team Overview Overview Rangers Mariners Edge Overview Rangers Mariners Edge Batting (wRC+) 118 (2nd in AL) 97 (9th in AL) Rangers Fielding (OAA) 4 (5th) 8 (1st) Mariners Starting Pitching (FIP-) 88 (4th) 85 (2nd) Mariners Bullpen (FIP-) 94 (7th) 77 (1st) Mariners
If you’d like a refresher about the Rangers’ offseason approach, see last month’s series preview. A team wRC+ of 134 and the most runs scored in the majors has given Texas the second best record in the American League entering June. They’re even better now than when we saw them last a month ago when the M’s lost two of three at home. Since then, the Rangers have jumped from eighth to fourth in pitching fWAR and shortstop Corey Seager came off the IL hot. With pitching and offense both sharp, Texas went 18-9 in May, most recently taking two of three from Detroit. Ace Jacob deGrom is still not back from injury, but has been throwing and will be reevaluated this week, and catcher Mitch Garver is out in Triple-A on a rehab assignment.
Rangers Lineup Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Player Position Bats PA K% BB% ISO wRC+ Marcus Semien 2B R 258 15.5% 10.1% 0.189 134 Corey Seager SS L 108 17.6% 10.2% 0.245 156 Nathaniel Lowe 1B L 248 19.8% 10.5% 0.150 118 Adolis García RF R 232 25.0% 8.2% 0.248 123 Josh Jung 3B R 223 28.3% 6.3% 0.237 139 Jonah Heim C S 190 17.9% 7.4% 0.167 116 Robbie Grossman DH S 196 25.5% 9.7% 0.140 94 Travis Jankowski LF L 87 20.7% 9.2% 0.104 120 Leody Taveras CF S 165 20.6% 7.9% 0.134 126
The Rangers have a star-studded infield of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Josh Jung, and Nathaniel Lowe. Seager (153 wRC+) and Jung (269 wRC+) have been carrying the load the last two weeks. The former has a 156 wRC+ on the season, and the latter continues to deliver big hits (12 home runs) and strikeouts (he’s gotten his strikeout rate down to 28.3%).The Rangers outfield is made up of the consistently powerful Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras, who is outperforming expectations to the tune of 126 wRC+, and Robbie Grossman, who has cooled off most significantly since early May. There are no easy outs in this lineup, as our sibling site reminded us in an article published on the off day yesterday.
Probable Pitchers
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
RHP Jon Gray IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 57 2/3 19.9% 8.2% 12.7% 37.3% 2.81 4.64 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 43.0% 95.3 79 76 92 0.417 Changeup 15.5% 88.4 78 80 52 0.342 Curveball 7.8% 78.8 104 Slider 33.7% 85.4 120 107 109 0.218
From a previous series preview:
Jon Gray enjoyed a successful, if injury-marred, first season in Texas last year after signing a four-year free agent deal last offseason. He turned his already good slider into a sweeper and improved its effectiveness outside of the thin air of Coors Field. With his fastball/sweeper combo forming the majority of his pitch mix, he struggled with a pretty significant platoon split. He doesn’t really have a third offering to keep left-handed batters at bay, though he’s tried to improve his changeup over the years. That platoon split is even larger this year and his strikeout rate has cratered to just 14.5% in six starts.
Gray was dominant in his last start against the Mariners, throwing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out eight. That outing began a run of four fantastic starts where he’s allowed just three runs total.
LHP Andrew Heaney IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 55 24.3% 9.3% 15.5% 41.3% 3.76 4.83 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 58.8% 92.1 102 113 93 0.301 Changeup 21.8% 83.9 97 75 91 0.393 Slider 19.3% 81.7 95 89 104 0.239
From a previous series preview:
Andrew Heaney was one of the other big additions to the Rangers starting rotation behind deGrom this offseason. He posted the highest strikeout rate and second lowest walk rate of his career last year, fueled by the highest fastball velocity of his career. He also took his slurvy curveball and turned it into a more traditional slider with a four mile per hour jump in velocity. A recurring shoulder injury derailed any shot of him putting together a full breakout season. This year, his velocity has taken a step back across the board and his strikeout rate has fallen back towards his career norms. Paired with a huge jump in walk rate, his FIP has ballooned to over six.
Heaney allowed four runs on four hits and two walks in his previous start against the Mariners, striking out seven.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% ERA FIP 74 1/3 24.6% 4.9% 4.8% 52.0% 2.42 2.53 Pitch Frequency Velocity Stuff+ Whiff+ BIP+ xwOBA Four-seam 37.8% 95.9 95 97 115 0.264 Cutter 19.1% 91.3 85 96 109 0.382 Splitter 26.6% 88.5 119 112 86 0.230 Curveball 13.4% 76.6 106 103 98 0.193 Slider 3.1% 84.7
After an injury-marred season last year, Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year. He’s always been a hard thrower, but the key to his development over the last few seasons is a reliance on his secondary offerings that play well off his heater. He’s leaning on his splitter and cutter more often this season at the expense of his slider, and those two pitches have really stymied opposing batters. His splitter in particular has been a deadly weapon and it plays perfectly off his riding fastball.
The Big Picture:
The AL West Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Rangers 35-20 0.636 -- W-L-W-W-L Astros 33-23 0.589 2.5 W-L-W-L-W Mariners 29-27 0.518 6.5 W-W-L-L-W Angels 30-28 0.517 6.5 L-W-L-W-L Athletics 12-46 0.207 24.5 L-L-W-W-L
The Wild Card Race Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Team W-L W% Games Behind Recent Form Orioles 35-21 0.625 +2.5 L-W-L-W-L Yankees 34-24 0.586 +0.5 W-W-W-W-L Astros 33-23 0.589 -- W-L-W-L-W Blue Jays 30-27 0.526 3.5 L-W-W-L-W Mariners 29-27 0.518 4.0 W-W-L-L-W Red Sox 29-27 0.518 4.0 W-L-L-L-W Angels 30-28 0.517 4.0 L-W-L-W-L
The Angels leapfrogged the M’s in the division standings during the week, as they took two of three against the White Sox. They fell back even with Seattle when they lost the first of four against the Astros yesterday, however, and both teams are further behind the Rangers than they were a week ago. Houston has gained no ground in the West, having lost their series against the Twins 2-1. The Athletics surprised everyone by winning two of three against the Braves this week, and hope for similar results in Miami over the weekend.
Source: Lookout Landing
