Double Dip w/ Atlanta Bats + SP1 Spencer Strider in Arizona (June 3)
Saturday have two waves of large-field tournaments with the first locking at 4:05 p.m ET and then a second featured slate with five tilts getting underway at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Spencer Strider and the Atlanta offense.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider at Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,400 | FanDuel $11,100 | Yahoo $55
Tonight RHP Spencer Strider is at the top of the salary list across the DFS industry and this makes sense as he is also the National League Cy Young Award frontrunner with one-third of the season in the books. Strider was the first pitcher to 100 strikeouts this season and his 15.0 per nine innings rate is absolutely absurd and 2.2 more than the next closest ace.
Arizona has improved all the way up to league average against right-handed pitching with their current group of batsmen. Over the last season and change, they have a 101 wRC+ along with a .160 ISO and a disciplined 20.2% strikeout rate against righties. While tonight marks only the 45th MLB appearance from Strider, he is no mere mortal and it looks like the strikeout crown will be his to lose this season.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Yu Darvish vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $9,300 | Yahoo $46
After a strong April (30.0 innings, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 34 Ks), RHP Yu Darvish has struggled in his last three outings with the Yankees rocking him for seven runs in New York last Sunday. Still, the 36-year-old veteran continues to have above average strikeout production and he should still hold serve over mediocre opponents. The Cubs have a 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year, which is the highest rate in the league. Tonight’s projected lineup has three hitters that strikeout 27%-plus against righties and two more that are a tick above 25%. Darvish is likely to be quite popular in tournaments with only five games on the docket, so for those feeling bold RHP Gerrit Cole in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, red-hot RHP Sonny Gray versus the visiting Cleveland Guardians or RHP Alex Cobb at home against the Baltimore Orioles would be the tournament pivots.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Eury Perez vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $9,300 | Yahoo $40
The eight-game afternoon slate brings a plethora of pitching options, though similar to Friday night, most of the top-talent is in tough matchups. Cristian Javier, Andrew Heaney and MacKenzie Gore rate out with the three best median fantasy point projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, they are squaring off against three of the better offenses in the Angels, Mariners and Phillies.
Instead let’s take a look at RHP Eury Perez, who has the better matchup at home against the Oakland Athletics, while still having a fantasy projection within 10-15% of the three aforementioned aces. Perez turned 20 in April and he is the top prospect in the Miami MiLB pipeline while also rating out among the top-five most talented youngsters in the entire league.
Perez is 6’8″ and boasts a fastball that averages a tick above 97 mph. Control is a bit of an issue and he needs to coax more groundballs from opposing hitters, but there is no denying the talent and potential of becoming a true ace. This season Perez made the jump from Double-A to The Show and the youngster already has 60 innings (31 MiLB and 19 MLB) under his belt, which will have him blowing through his career high of 78 this month. The Marlins may spread out his starts or begin to cap him at 6ish innings per appearance, but we should consider him a full-go for around 80-85 pitches this afternoon.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Daniel Lynch vs. Colorado Rockies — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,800 | FanDuel $7,700 | Yahoo $27
There is a strong chance that this recommendation is well into the “fancy play” syndrome, but it is tough to ignore the salary and matchup for LHP Daniel Lynch today as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo. Lynch was the 34th overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft and like most young pitchers entering the professional ranks at that time, the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season curtailed his development trajectory. Coming out of the pandemic cancelled season, Lynch jumped from Single-A right into Triple-A action.
More often than not we would be skipping over Lynch or even attacking him with top offenses. Today that is a different story with the Rockies having one of the worst offenses in the league, in concert with Lynch’s low salary. The 26-year-old stands 6’6″ and possesses four reasonably average pitches, which should help him keep the Colorado hitters off balance.
Since the start of last year, the current collection of Rockies have a 90 wRC+ against southpaws, which is among the worst in the league along with the Athletics, Guardians and Tigers. Though their strikeout rate is around league average, their power numbers are dreadful away from Coors Field, which bodes well for Lynch to post a strong fantasy point per dollar score.
Latest MLB DFS Content
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
This season, RHP Ryne Nelson has had results all over the map. In his last eight starts, he was tagged for 24 runs in the five worst – yet cruised with only three combined runs allowed in the other trio of tilts. It is the lack of strikeouts that get him in trouble as he is a fly ball pitcher that has trouble working out of jams with his inability to generate groundball outs.
Nelson allows power to both sides of the plate and the Atlanta offense is loaded with big bats. Matt Olson (.293 ISO), Austin Riley (.205 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (.239 ISO) are the core four on which to focus. Catcher and cleanup hitter Sean Murphy (.180 ISO) and leadoff man Ronald Acuna (.173 ISO) occupy the most prominent positions in the lineup and are absolutely in play. For differentiation, look to Michael Harris II (.214 ISO) at the back of the lineup as a one-off or part of a “wraparound” stack with is dramatically discounted salary on the main DFS sites.
Other MLB DFS and Wagering Opportunities
Tonight RHP Michael Grove will be starting for the Dodgers after missing just over a month with a groin injury. Grove did get two rehabilitation starts in Triple-A, logging 64 and 77 pitches though it would be a surprise to see him with more than 70-75 before the Yankees send him to the showers.
We all know that Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are strong options in DFS and in the home run market, but it is also a good time to point out the new “True Odds” feature on OddsShopper. Currently Stanton is +285 and Judge is at +160 when shopping for the best home run lines. Looking at the “True Odds” for each, we can see that we are getting a favorable boost on Stanton who is a +242 and Judge who is at +141 when looking at the actual projected statistical probability of either hitting one out of the park.
While it may not seem like much to the casual observer, this is the equivalent of the sportsbooks giving 15% booster for each of these current offerings, except it is baked right into the actual line. Check out OddsShopper and let the tools do all the heavy lifting for you, saving time by not having to wade through all of the seemingly limitless offerings a the myriad of available sportsbooks.
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Afternoon Slate Secondary Target: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Bryan Woo — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Seattle placed projected starter LHP Marco Gonzales on the injured list and they are calling up RHP Bryan Woo to make his debut. The 23-year-old was promoted to Double-A this season and while he has a wicked strikeout rate, the low-minors are a far cry from the talent level in The Show. Woo has an above-average fastball, but it is not going to fool MLB hitters when they know they can sit on dead-red. This year he has been working on a slider, but his changeup is borderline putrid and his command on his secondary offerings is dodgy.
Texas leads the league both in total runs and with a wicked 6.21 runs per game. For perspective, they are plating 2.8 more runners per game that the anemic Athletics. Fortunately there are enough games on the day-slate and the Rangers are appropriately priced across the DFS sites, so that should keep their popularity in check. Aside from that, literally anyone donning a uniform and slotting into the top-six spots on the lineup card are worthy of our attention. The preferred priority based on salary, positional eligibility and projected production are Adolis Garcia, Corey Segar, Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe, Josh Jung and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim. Outfielder Travis Jankowski is an extreme punt option from the bottom of the order at a near minimum salary across the board.
Afternoon Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers at RHP Graham Ashcraft — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Until further notice we are going to target RHP Graham Ashcraft until he and the Reds figure out how to better manage his pitch mix. Odds are that Ashcraft would be better suited working out of the bullpen, where he can take advantage of velocity in shorter outings. May was dreadful for the 25-year-old and across six starts, spanning 28.1 innings he was left holding the bag with a 9.21 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, ceding half a dozen longballs and striking out just 23 hitters. Three of his last five starts have ended with seven or more earned runs being charged to the struggling righty.
The salary algorithms for DraftKing and FanDuel are giving a significant discount to the Brewers and even Yahoo is not putting enough emphasis on the glorious matchup and ballpark boost for Milwaukee. Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich and catcher William Contreras are the power trio to target first. Owen Miller is an excellent option on DraftKings ($3,500) and FanDuel ($3,000) if he is in the two-hole as expected this afternoon. Switch-hitter Abraha Toro, youngster Brice Turang and veteran Brian Anderson can be used to fill out full-stacks or as a mini-stack from the back half of the lineup.
Final Thoughts for Saturday, June 3 | MLB DFS Picks
Boston looks like there could be evening showers again, so Game 2 of today’s doubleheader bears watching on slates where available. The Midwest could see some humidity showers as the warm weather cools in the early evening though postponements in Cincinnati or Kansas City are unlikely.
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Source: stokastic.com
