MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Best Bets for Royals vs Marlins, Brewers vs Reds (Monday, June 5)
A new week in Major League Baseball brings with it a smaller Monday slate. There are only eight games on the docket, with seven coming under the lights after Rays-Red Sox gets going this afternoon.
Our MLB analysts are on a pair of evening games: Royals vs. Marlins and Brewers vs. Reds. We have a player prop and a total to recommend.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, June 5th.
Monday’s MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Royals vs. Marlins
Monday, June 5 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
By Nick Shlain
Garrett has gone over this number in four of his last five starts. The only game recently where he didn’t reach six strikeouts was against the Rockies at Coors Field, the ballpark which negatively impacts pitchers the most.
The Royals aren’t a heavy strikeout lineup this year. Kansas City’s projected lineup has a combined 19% strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this year. Still, there’s plenty of strikeout upside coming from Garrett. He’s been going over this number with regularity and has a 24% strikeout percentage this year.
The Royals have also been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball on the road this year. Kansas City is averaging just 3.48 runs per game on the road this season, which is 29th in all of baseball.
That bodes well for Garrett’s chances of working deep into this game and giving him more opportunities to rack up the strikeouts we need.
Pick: Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)
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Brewers vs. Reds
Monday, June 5 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Under 9.5 (-105)
By D.J. James
Andrew Abbott will make his season debut for the Cincinnati Reds on Monday against Julio Teheran and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Abbott owns a 3.05 ERA in Triple-A Louisville over 31 1/3 innings. He has 54 strikeouts in that timeframe, so he can take hitters down when needed.
Teheran has been great in two starts for Milwaukee with a 0.89 ERA. He does have a 3.42 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity of 90.8 mph so negative regression will be in the cards.
The reason for a play on the under, though, is how poorly the Brewers and Reds have hit in the last month. The Brewers hold a 27.6% strikeout rate with a 81 wRC+ off of lefty pitching. This ranks 29th in MLB.
Meanwhile, the Reds rank 16th with a 94 wRC+ and a 24.3% strikeout rate.
Neither of these marks are enough to sell the over in this game, even with a veteran who has struggled in the past and a newly minted MLB starter.
Relief pitching may be an issue in this game. Milwaukee has a 4.56 xFIP in the last month, while Cincy has a 4.83 xFIP. Each team does have three or four options in the bullpen under a 4.00 xFIP, so this should eliminate most concerns.
Given that the total is so high for two teams who are not the best with hitting, the under should be in play. I would bet under 9.5 to -115.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-105)
Source: The Action Network
