EXAS Stock Pulls Back Gains Despite Bullish Calls For Cologuard 2.0
Exact Sciences (EXAS) said its next-generation Cologuard outperformed the original colon cancer screening test in a study of 20,000 people, abut EXAS stock pulled back early gains by Wednesday's close.
X
In the study, next-generation Cologuard — a stool-based test for colon cancer — showed 94% sensitivity and 91% specificity. Sensitivity refers to a test's ability to find positive cases. Specificity is the test's ability to rule out someone without the disease.
Both measures outperformed the original Cologuard, which gained approval in 2014. The first Cologuard had a sensitivity of 92% in detecting all colon cancer cases. Its overall specificity was 87%. Those results were based on a study of more than 10,000 people.
"At a high level, Cologuard 2.0 raised the bar across the board," Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Kumar said in a report. "A 2% pick-up in overall sensitivity while raising the bar on specificity by about 300 basis points was impressive."
On today's stock market, EXAS stock initially rose, but settled down 4.8% at the close, ending the regular session at 89.78. Shares had rocketed 222% as of Tuesday's close off a recent low point in late October. As of Wednesday's close, the stock has risen 207% from that same point.
Now, Exact Sciences shares are well above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and climbing.
EXAS Stock: 60 Million Unscreened People
Exact Sciences is planning to file for approval of its next-generation Cologuard by the end of the year.
"Cologuard is a groundbreaking innovation in noninvasive cancer detection," Chief Executive Kevin Conroy said in a written statement. "Next-generation Cologuard will set a new performance standard."
The approval comes at a critical time. There are more than 60 million people in the U.S. who are eligible for colon cancer screening, but haven't been screened, Conroy said. The American Cancer Society says people age 45 and older should be regularly screened for colon cancer.
Their options include Cologuard, other stool-based tests and colonoscopies. There are also blood-based tests for colon cancer, but the ACA doesn't recommend them at this point.
"Based on these numbers, Cologuard 2.0 should dispel any lingering concerns on cannibalization from blood-based tests," Evercore's Kumar said.
He noted Guardant Health's (GH) blood test for colon cancer had an overall sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of about 90%. The results from Exact make "a strong statement about sustainability of Cologuard in the colon cancer screening landscape."
Kumar kept his outperform rating on EXAS stock.
Highly Rated — And Extended — Stock
Notably, Cologuard can detect early-stage polyps, allowing a doctor to remove them before they become cancerous. The next-generation Cologuard had a sensitivity of 43% for detecting precancerous polyps, compared to 42% for the original Cologuard. That's below Exact's target for 50%, Canaccord Genuity analyst Kyle Mikson said in a report.
But Mikson kept his buy rating on EXAS stock. The results of the new study support Exact Sciences' goal of eventually winning half of the colon cancer screening market — or more, he said.
"Overall, we believe Exact's (study called) Blue-C topline results for next-generation Cologuard are notable (and relatively solid)," he said. Still, "we think the shares could offer upside from current levels."
EXAS stock is highly rated, according to IBD Digital.
Shares have a nearly perfect Relative Strength Rating of 98. This means Exact stock ranks in the top 2% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Shares also have a strong Composite Rating of 95, a measure of fundamental and technical measures.
Exact Sciences stock broke out of a consolidation with a buy point at 72.19 on May 10. EXAS stock was about 24% extended from that entry as of Wednesday's close, according to MarketSmith.com.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:
Dice Therapeutics Stock Catapults To Record High On $2.4 Billion Eli Lilly Buyout
Arcellx, A Top 5% Biotech, Dives After A 'Perfect Storm' Leads To A Patient's Death
Want More IBD Insights? Subscribe To Our Investing Podcast!
IBD Stock Of The Day: See How To Find, Track And Buy The Best Stocks
Profit From Short-Term Trends With SwingTrader
Source: Investor's Business Daily
