MLB Best Bets Today: Odds, Picks for Rangers vs Yankees (Sunday, June 25)
Do you enjoy a side of baseball with your breakfast? If so, Sunday’s slate is sure to be a treat.
The London Series gets started early as the Cubs and Cardinals face off at 10:10 a.m. ET. After that, Sunday’s jam-packed, 15-game slate continues.
Our MLB experts have dug into each of the matchups and found the best MLB bets to target. The picks and analysis are below, so be sure to continue reading for today’s MLB best bets.
Sunday’s MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Sunday, June 25 10:10 a.m. ET ESPN Cubs Moneyline (-134)
By Sean Zerillo
The Cubs have some advantages over the Cardinals that I mentioned before Saturday’s contest — Chicago’s position players are more athletic, which translates to value on defense and on the basepaths. That also helps close the offensive gap between these teams.
Chicago ranks 12th in Defensive Runs Saved, sixth in Outs Above Average and seventh in baserunning value. Conversely, St. Louis ranks 28th, 21st and 23rd in those categories.
The Cardinals offense had the projected splits edge Saturday, but with the handedness of both starters flipped, the Cubs should close that projection gap Sunday. The Cubs rank sixth against lefties this season (113 wRC+) compared to 17th against righties (95 wrC+), whereas the Cardinals are ninth against righties (108 wRC+).
The Cubs also have a starting pitching advantage with Marcus Stroman (3.66 xERA) facing Matthew Liberatore (7.61 xERA).
Stroman has been a bit lucky this season (2.28 ERA), thanks to a career-best .235 BABIP and a 80.2% strand rate — both of which should regress toward his career marks (.296 and 73%) and/or the major league averages (.295 and 71.8%). Otherwise, Stroman’s underlying indicators align with the previous three seasons, when he carried an ERA between 3.02 and 3.50.
The Cubs only saw Liberatore a couple of times last season and have just 15 combined plate appearances against him. From a splits perspective, Dansby Swanson (119 wRC+ vs. lefties since 2021) and Seiya Suzuki (139) seem like the Cubs’ best plays against a left-handed starter. Additionally, both righties perform well against fastballs and curveballs — Liberatore’s preferred pitch mix.
Current Cardinals hitters have seemingly had reasonable success against Stroman (a combined .734 OPS across 145 plate appearances). However, Paul Goldschmidt (8-for-21, 5 xBH, 3 BB, 5 K) and Nolan Gorman (4-for-15, 2 HR) are responsible for the majority of the damage. Aside from those two hitters, Stroman has posted a 26:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 105 plate appearances against the other Cardinals bats.
Liberatore has pitched to a 6.03 ERA in 15 career appearances (59 2/3 innings). Across those outings, the southpaw has a 6.37 xERA and a 5.21 xFIP. He’s been functional against lefties (.294 wOBA, 4.81 xFIP), but awful against righties (.404 wOBA, 5.35 xFIP). Well, Chicago can throw out nine right-handed bats against him.
I set the Cubs as 59.5% favorites (-147 implied odds) and would back Chicago at -135 (57.5%) or better. And given the discrepancy between the starters and relievers, I’m higher on the Cubs’ chances in the first five innings (F5). My F5 price target is -152 (projected -165).
What is QuickSlip? QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Sunday, June 25 10:10 a.m. ET ESPN Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
By Anthony Dabbundo
Marcus Stroman’s strikeout rate has been consistent over his past four MLB seasons. He’s sat between 20.5% and 21.7% in strikeout rate each year and thus this season’s 21.4% is a solid number against an average lineup in an average park. However, this is neither an average lineup, nor an average park. If we use the Statcast park factor for Coors Field, Stroman’s base projected strikeout rate drops all the way to 17.7%.
The Cardinals strike out at a below-average rate (23rd lowest strikeout rate) and don’t have any massive lineup changes that would dramatically impact how their lineup will project Sunday. If we keep Stroman conservatively at a 17.7% strikeout rate, he’d need to face 26 hitters to be expected to go over 4.5 strikeouts.
Additionally, both teams have rested bullpens and an off day Monday. As a result, each starter could be on a tighter leash than normal.
I’d bet Stroman to go under 4.5 strikeouts at -115 or better.
Pick: Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Rangers vs. Yankees
Sunday, June 25 1:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV Rangers Moneyline (-104)
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on Sunday’s slate is the Texas Rangers moneyline at -104 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
That’s right, I’m going back to the well for the second time in as many days. Texas lost 1-0 to the New York Yankees on Saturday, but the Rangers are still a much better team than the Yankees right now.
With Aaron Judge on the Injured List, the Yankees managed just four hits Saturday. The lone run came via a Billy McKinney homer, his third in the past four games.
New York will have its ace, Gerrit Cole, on the mound, but the Rangers counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who has pitched like an ace this year. New York’s only real chance to win is in a low-scoring game. However, Texas has an offense that can erupt at any time, especially in a hitter’s park like Yankee Stadium. New York also used its best high-leverage reliever, Clay Holmes, for the second day in a row Saturday, so he’s unlikely to be available Sunday.
Texas has its best pitcher on the mound and a well-rested bullpen. That should be enough to beat this version of the Yankees.
Source: The Action Network
