Trade analysis: Alex Newhook traded to Montreal Canadiens for draft picks
In what has been a predictably busy day for the NHL, the Colorado Avalanche got in on the action with a surprising move of their own when they moved young forward Alex Newhook to the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for picks 31 and 37 in this week’s NHL Draft.
Pick 31 will fall near the end of the first round and pick 37 will be one of the first selections when Day 2 begins on Thursday morning. Combined with their own selection at 27, it suddenly gives the Avalanche the kind of trade ammunition that makes you think they are up to something other than planning to simply select three players and then wait for their next pick, which is currently slated for the fifth round.
Newhook was the 16th overall pick back in 2019 and the hope was that his ascent would be perfectly timed with the departure of Nazem Kadri via free agency and he could slide into Colorado’s vacant 2C job on the cheap.
That didn’t happen as Newhook followed up his 33-point rookie season with a 30-point campaign this year despite playing 11 more games.
The reality here is that it ended up being an awkward relationship between Newhook and the Avalanche. Wanting him to develop as a center but not equipped to provide him with the kind of skilled players that fit Newhook’s playstyle, the Avalanche never found the right home for Newhook.
Despite an excellent work ethic and coachability, the truth is that Newhook is simply miscast as a bottom-six player. He put the work in to try to muck and grind the best he could, but it just wasn’t the best use of his skills and he never looked like he got comfortable at the NHL level.
There were plenty of flashes along the way, but the sustained breakthrough never came. From where I’m sitting, I can’t help but wonder if the Avalanche looked at their current situation and decided that giving Newhook a meaningful raise (in the area of $2M per year should be about where he lands) to continue being a misfit in their lineup was less appealing than, say, potentially re-signing J.T. Compher to be the club’s 3C next year and paying upwards of $4M per year for him.
Compher is coming off a career year when he registered 52 points, but he was badly exposed in Colorado’s first-round loss to the Seattle Kraken as he completely fell apart in the elevated role. Much was made of Colorado’s bottom six scoring zero goals in the series, but Compher registered just two points in the seven games despite playing more than 22 minutes per night.
In truth, Compher is better suited as a 3C and I wonder if the Avalanche said their center depth problems in the playoffs and, after acquiring Ryan Johansen earlier in the week for extremely cheap, decided they were comfortable paying the UFA price tag on Compher for a more proper role instead of trying to roll Newhook out into that spot next season.
There’s no denying Compher would be the better fit, it’s more a matter of the price tag that could really hurt Colorado.
If that’s not where the Avalanche decides to head with it, there’s still the reality that they acquired picks 31 and 37 from the Canadiens in exchange for Newhook.
Colorado’s prospect pipeline is desperate for an injection of youth and making three picks between 27-37 would certainly qualify as that injection. However, they could also look to flip any of those picks, either in combination or separately, for upgrades to the NHL roster.
For me, I would say the ideal outcome right now is that Colorado uses the 27th pick on a prospect they like, trades back from 31 to a team with multiple second-round selections (Detroit, Chicago, Seattle all have at least three), trade one of those picks for an NHL player they like, trade pick 37 for an NHL player they like, then use the other second-round pick on another prospect they like.
That haul would net them two NHL players, likely cost-efficient ones, and two new prospects for their system. Depending on what positions those players would be, it would also set them up to primarily focus on their depth when free agency opens this Saturday.
In the end, it’s not the result we all envisioned when the Avs selected Newhook back in 2019, but given the way it seemed he had stagnated in Colorado, the Avalanche pivoting quickly and netting picks in the first and second rounds is a tidy piece of business. It does feel like ultimately this move will largely hinge on what the Avs do next, but for right now we have a world of possibilities to talk ourselves into as they operate from a sudden position of strength.
If there’s one thing we should all be able to agree on, it’s that the Avalanche should ban anyone who wants to wear #18 ever again for this franchise.
Source: DNVR
