MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Expert Picks for Cardinals vs Marlins, Braves vs Guardians, More (Tuesday, July 4)
Happy Independence Day, everyone.
While you’re grilling hot dogs and watching fireworks displays, MLB teams across the country will be trying to set off their own. All 30 teams are in action with 15 games spread throughout the day, and our MLB analysts have you covered.
While you’re avoiding family members and mixing your third or fourth cocktail, you’ll also surely be looking to put down some action to liven up the holiday, and we have six bets to recommend across five different games, including Cardinals vs. Marlins, Brewers vs. Cubs, Phillies vs. Rays, Mets vs. Diamondbacks and Braves vs. Guardians.
Here are our MLB best bets for the Fourth of July.
Fourth of July MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Tuesday, July 4 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Multiple Ways to Fade Adam Wainwright
By Collin Whitchurch
Every now and then, a starting pitcher comes along who is just auto-fade every single time he comes to the mound. Often times, this is a pitcher on the last legs of his career, still out there because the franchise has no other options, or is tied to his contract, or is trying to respect his veteran status.
We saw this last year with Dallas Keuchel and two years ago with Jake Arrieta. This year, that pitcher might just be Adam Wainwright, who would very likely be out of St. Louis by now if he wasn’t revered for his tenure with the organization.
Wainwright started his season with eight straight starts where he went at least five innings, but he still gave up at least three earned runs in all but one start. His last two starts have been unmitigated disasters, getting crushed by the Cubs in London and then failing to make it out of the second inning against the Astros.
The Marlins’ offense isn’t the most fearsome, but it knows how to put the bat on the ball. The Marlins have the 11th-best strikeout rate in the majors against right-handed pitching. They don’t walk much, but that’s fine against Wainwright. They will make plenty of contact and it will likely be hard contact, and the Cardinals’ defense has regressed without the shift to the point where they can no longer be counted on to back up a struggling starting pitcher.
Jesús Luzardo has been on a tear, striking out 23 with just three walks and two earned runs allowed in his last three starts and 19 1/3 innings. The Cardinals profile better against left-handed pitching, but Luzardo is understandably a big favorite here as he emerges as one of the better swing-and-miss pitchers in the game.
There’s a number of ways to attack this line and I’ll likely be on all of them. You can straight bet the Marlins in either half (-180 range for the first five; -160 range for the full game), and you can also focus on the team totals. As of this writing, their F5 team total is only being offered at PointsBet and the over 3.5 gives you a nice +160 payout.
If you want to play it safe, there may be some 2.5s out there in the morning and I’d eat the juice to get that. Their full game team total as of writing is 4.5 (-104 at FanDuel is the best line) and that’s a great spot as well.
From a props perspective, I’d recommend Wainwright under 3.5 strikeouts if you can find it. That number opened at most sportsbooks on Tuesday night but quickly got bet down to 2.5. I wouldn’t bet that even at plus money, unfortunately. There are no Outs Recorded lines out as of this writing, but if it’s around 15.5 or higher, that is absolutely worth a bet as well.
Wainwright has had a fine career, but it may be nearing a sad conclusion, so let’s try to cash in while we still can.
Picks: Marlins F5 ML | Marlins ML | Marlins Team Total | Marlins F5 Team Total | Wainwright Outs Recorded Under
Cardinals vs. Marlins
Tuesday, July 4 1:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Marlins ML (-159)
By Nick Shlain
The Marlins are at home taking on the St. Louis Cardinals and have a big advantage in the starting pitching department with Jesus Luzardo on the mound going against Adam Wainwright.
Wainwright has been absolutely blasted in his last two starts, allowing a combined 13 earned runs. He has a 7.45 ERA on the season, likely his last season in baseball.
Luzardo, on the other hand, hasn’t allowed even one earned run in each of his last two starts. He’s also struck out nine batters in each of his last two starts.
The Cardinals have a better lineup than the Marlins, but with the difference in starting pitching here it won’t be enough to matter. The Marlins have a slightly better bullpen ERA at 4.04 compared to 4.28 for the Cardinals.
I like the full game moneyline, but I could also see betting the first five innings moneyline and Marlins -1.5.
Pick: Marlins ML (-159)
Cubs vs. Brewers
Tuesday, July 4 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Under 9 (-110)
By D.J. James
Despite combining for 14 runs on Monday, neither the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers have not been crushing the ball lately.
The Cubs pitch Kyle Hendricks, who has thrown well lately. He looks like vintage Hendricks with an average exit velocity allowed in the 91st percentile and a hard hit rate allowed in the 82nd percentile. His 2.81 ERA is well above a 4.18 xERA, but given how he does not permit hard contact, he should be in good shape against the Brewers.
The Brew Crew throw Wade Miley, who, like Hendricks, has a higher xERA than ERA, but he has still been solid. He has a 3.02 ERA against a 4.82 xERA. He does not walk hitters or allow hard contact, so these are a similar brand of starting pitcher.
The Cubs have a team wRC+ off of lefties of only 82 since June 1, striking out 26.2 percent of the time with a .662 OPS.
The Brewers are similar against righties, with a 25.8% strikeout rate 82 wRC+ and .660 OPS since June 1.
The bullpen for the Cubs has been relatively sharp. They have a team xFIP of 4.02, but multiple reliable arms are below 4.02.
The Brewers bullpen has its hang-ups, but pitchers like Devin Williams can do some damage.
Expect both starters to go deep into this game an mitigate the bullpen impact on this game, regardless. Take the under to 8 (-115).
Pick: Under 9 (-110)
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Phillies vs. Rays
Tuesday, July 4 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Phillies ML (+124)
By Kenny Ducey
It may not seem like the best idea to trust Aaron Nola considering he’s had an ERA north of four runs over the last two months, but hear me out.
Nola’s expected batting average in April was .239 — a number which has since dropped to .234 in May and .205 in June. His expected slugging also came in at a solid .366 in June with an improving whiff rate, leading to some better strikeout numbers.
On the other side of the coin, while Zach Eflin’s results have remained stellar, his underlying numbers have begun to go the wrong way with a .446 xSLG in June and some higher launch angles on his sinker and curveball.
There’s some troubling signs here for Eflin, and against a team which is hitting the ball well right now I think you have to consider fading him. Philly has been better in the batting average department and better in the plate discipline numbers over the last two weeks and has a starter who is a bit better than meets the eye.
I love the road dogs.
Pick: Phillies ML (+124)
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Tuesday, July 4 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-160)
By Jim Turvey
If you’re looking for fireworks on the Fourth of July, look no further than Tommy Pham. (I can only hope I’m the fifth person to make that exact joke in this article already). (Editor’s note: you’re alone, Jim).
Pham is on an absolute scorcher right now. Since May 28, he’s slashing .378/.431/.694 with six homers and 43 combined runs and RBI. In fact, of the 25 starts he’s had in that stretch, he’s cleared the 1.5 hits + runs + RBI plateau 20 times.
He’s not going to clear that 1.5 mark at an 80% clip going forward, but against a very pedestrian pitcher on Tuesday (Zach Davies), I do project him to clear this number at a better rate than the 61.5 percent implied odds (-160) available at DraftKings right now. I would play out to -220.
There are a variety of ways to play Pham, though. I also like his runs scored prop (+120), as well as his total bases prop (over 1.5 at +120 as well). Pham’s Baseball Savant page right now has more red on it than a Santa Claus outfit, as he is deserving every bit of this streak.
Pick: Tommy Pham Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-160)
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Braves vs. Guardians
Tuesday, July 4 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-108)
By James Lumalu
Trending in the wrong direction over the last couple seasons, Shane Bieber has hit a new low in 2023. His Statcast page is basically all blue, with the only positive marks coming via walk percentage, extension and fastball spin.
Bieber’s velocity isn’t what it once was. In his 2020 Cy Young Award-winning season, his four-seam fastball averaged out at 94.1 mph; that’s dipped to 91.3 mph in 2023. That decrease means he can’t get away with the same mistakes. Look no further than the average exit velocity on his fastball, which is a career-worst 95 mph.
But despite all the troubling signs, Bieber’s stayed afloat. He’s managed to post 11 quality starts in 17 outings. His last start was a gem, blanking the Royals over six innings with eight strikeouts.
I’m still a Bieber believer. With superb command and pitchability, he seems like someone who can continue to outperform bad peripherals. That being said, he had some starts in June – against Arizona and Milwaukee – where he was cruising until the big inning bit him. He’s just prone to more blowup-type outings with the stuff he’s featuring these days.
On Tuesday, he gets an extremely tough matchup against the Braves, a team that could be sent to Seattle to represent the National League in the All-Star Game. Their entire lineup can mash, and Bieber is going to have to be mighty fine to tame them.
And even if he does, it’s worth noting the Guardians’ bullpen has been anything but stout. They have a team ERA of 3.13, which ranks second in MLB. Very good! Their xFIP, however, lags behind at 4.26, which is 16th.
Emmanuel Clase is an All-Star representative for Cleveland, but he’s already blown six saves. He’s been shaky of late, allowing six runs in his last two appearances.
Takes the Braves team total over 4.5. If Bieber finds a way, you’ll just have to tip your hat to the man.
Source: The Action Network
