Orioles vs Yankees Pick Today | MLB Odds, Expert Predictions (Tuesday, July 4)
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
Editor’s Note: Tuesday’s Orioles vs. Yankees game has been delayed to an expected start time of 1:40 p.m. ET.
There may not be a better team to play on Independence Day than the New York Yankees. They were the team of America’s pastime, but they have a tough task ahead of them this afternoon.
The Bronx Bombers will continue their series with the Baltimore Orioles, and all indications point to bombs being hit as it is hot and the wind will be blowing out at Yankee Stadium. This game could be decided by who hits the most long balls, especially when considering the starting pitchers.
Let’s dive in and see which team will come out on top in what could be a slugfest.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are the one team that has been able to hang around in the AL East. They enter this matchup 10th in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA. They have received contributions from a multitude of players, both young and old, which has made their lineup a chore for opposing pitchers.
They are in line to give Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt trouble this afternoon. To his credit, Schmidt has put it all together over the last month or so, as he has not allowed more than three earned runs over his last eight starts. One of them was a solid five-inning effort against this Baltimore club.
However, Schmidt’s box score against the Orioles may be clean, but he is due to regress against them, and Baltimore could do significant damage if its hitters get to him this afternoon.
Schmidt’s recent stretch has come with good fortune as he ranks in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and 21st in hard-hit rate. The Orioles are a part of that sample size, and their xBA against Schmidt is 47 points higher.
Although, it doesn’t stop there, as the Orioles xSLG is nearly double what they’ve actually posted off Schmidt. Expect the Birds’ positive regression to show on the scoreboard in this matchup.
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New York Yankees
The Yankees are still without their star slugger, Aaron Judge, whose absence has had a significant impact on this team. They are 16-19 without him this season, and their offensive numbers are even more concerning.
Judge went down with a toe injury on June 4th. So a month since his injury, here’s what the Yankees have done: New York has hit .213 and has the lowest wOBA in the majors.
While they are indeed in a position to benefit from the park factors this afternoon, their lineup has not shown they have the ability to capitalize on it. It also doesn’t help that they will face a starter in Kyle Gibson who is due for some positive regression.
Gibson has had an up-and-down 2023 campaign but has pitched better than his 4.88 ERA portrays. His FIP is nearly a full run lower at 3.89, and he’s already proven he can shut down this Judge-less Yankees lineup after throwing seven shutout innings against them in May.
Orioles vs. Yankees Betting Pick
The Yankees will be a very public team this afternoon, but the fact of the matter is that the Orioles are the better team everywhere in this matchup. They have the better starter, the better bullpen and certainly the more potent lineup.
Back Baltimore in this one and make your July 4th even sweeter.
Source: The Action Network
