MLB Odds & Picks: 4 Wednesday Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Mets, Guardians vs. Braves & More
There’s no Fourth of July hangover in MLB on Wednesday, as all 30 teams are in action.
With so much action on the docket, our MLB staff looks to keep the fireworks going with four best bets for Wednesday, including two picks for Braves vs. Guardians, a bet for Royals vs. Twins and a wager for Mets vs. Diamondbacks.
Check out all four of our best bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate below.
Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Wednesday night’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Braves vs. Guardians
Wednesday, July 5 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Over 10
By D.J. James
The Atlanta Braves are one of the best — if not the best — hitting teams in the Major Leagues, especially when a right-hander takes the mound for their opponent. They’ll face one in Cal Quantrill of the Cleveland Guardians on Wednesday.
The Guardians have also hit right-handers well, and they will be facing Michael Soroka, who had some troubles in his last outing against the Miami Marlins.
Soroka does have the potential to be a good starter, but his 11.5% barrel rate in three MLB starts this season is not going to get the job done. He held a 3.31 ERA in Triple-A this season over 11 games, but he has not made the consistent jump yet.
Quantrill has been awful this year. He holds a 6.18 ERA against a 5.99 xERA, so expectations are similar to reality. He ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of inducing weak contact, but his xBA ranks in the fifth percentile. His xSLG sits in the 10th percentile, and his strikeout rate comes in at just 12.3%.
The Braves own a 151 wRC+ with a .951 OPS, 18% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate off of righties since June 1. They will crush Quantrill since they already make a ton of contact.
The Guards boast the seventh-best wRC+ (111) off of righties since June 1 while owning a 6.7% walk rate and an 18.2% strikeout rate. Their .764 OPS is also solid.
Atlanta’s relief corps have been top-notch in that same time frame with a 3.61 xFIP. However, Cleveland’s sits at 4.46.
Given that the pitching looks suspect in this matchup, it’s hard not to back the bats with Atlanta and Cleveland hitting well lately. Take this to 10.5 at -120.
Braves vs. Guardians
Wednesday, July 5 7:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV Over 10
By BJ Cunningham
There was once a time when Michael Soroka was going to be the Braves’ No. 1 starter for the foreseeable future. Then one injury after another has kept Soroka from pitching for Atlanta, and while he’s made his return, it hasn’t gone as planned.
Soroka has started three games and has an ERA well above 6.00 with his expected metrics incredibly high as well.
Soroka was always someone who would outperform his expected ERA. Even in his one full season that wasn’t hampered by injury, he had a 2.68 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and 3.85 xFIP.
Image via FanGraphs
Cleveland’s offense has been bad overall for the season, but it’s been much better lately. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians own a .329 wOBA and 111 wRC+ — eighth in MLB — after sitting near the bottom of baseball offensively in those metrics in April and May.
Cal Quantrill was one of the most frustrating pitchers to handicap because he consistently outperformed his expected metrics year after year. But this year, he’s finally getting shelled like he was supposed to. He owns a 6.18 ERA and 5.99 xERA, which is one of the highest marks among qualified starting pitchers.
He basically only throws a sinker and a cutter, so he’s very reliant on weak contact. So far this season, opposing hitters have over a .300 xBA and .350 xwOBA against both pitches.
Quantrill also has one of the lowest K/9 rates among qualified starting pitchers while also sitting near the bottom in Stuff+ as well. So, facing the best lineup in baseball that has hit 66 home runs and boasts a .396 wOBA over the past 30 days is a recipe for disaster.
I have 10.7 runs projected for the full game, so I like the value on over 10 runs at -104 for the full game.
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Royals vs. Twins
Wednesday, July 5 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV Twins TT Over 4.5 (-137)
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the slate for Wednesday is the Minnesota Twins to go over 4.5 total runs scored at -137 at Caesars.
Minnesota has pitched pretty well this season but struggled to score runs until recently. The Twins seem to have figured out how to score against bad teams, and they have another matchup with the Royals here.
The Royals will start 25-year-old Alec Marsh, who will be making the second Major League start of his career. Marsh allowed five earned runs in four innings pitched against the Dodgers in his first start. Before that, Marsh had a 4.33 xFIP in Double-A and a 4.32 xFIP in Triple-A.
It’s unlikely that Marsh will have a great start here, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins score five runs while he’s in the game. He’s also unlikely to work deep into the game, and the Royals have the second-worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 5.06.
I see value on the Twins here in another good matchup for them at home.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Wednesday, July 5 9:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV Under 9.5
By Kenny Ducey
The New York Mets have been hitting the ball much better of late, ranking 10th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and most of that’s been due to an influx of power.
The Mets have registered a spicy .204 Isolated Power over the last two weeks with one of the better hard-hit rates in the game. And as one might figure, that’s come along with one of the five highest fly-ball rates in the game during that time.
Well, fly balls don’t really leave the yard at Chase Field, which ranks 24th in park factor for home runs, according to Statcast. Tommy Henry also doesn’t allow much quality contact, sitting in the top 9% in hard-hit rate for the year.
I think that should tame the Mets’ bats a bit here, and it doesn’t hurt that they’re ranked 19th against lefties in wRC+.
I’m not totally sold on the Diamondbacks here either, considering they’re also in the top five in fly-ball rate over the last two weeks and sporting a poor 23.8% strikeout rate.
Kodai Senga has been one of the better strikeout arms in the National League, punching out opponents at nearly a 29% clip. Now, he’ll face a team struggling to make contact with just a .240 batting average over the last two weeks.
The combination here should make for a low-scoring affair. I’d even play this down to 8.5.
Source: The Action Network
