Typical summer storms today; Flood Watch for tomorrow
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Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors Flood watch is in effect from noon until 10 p.m. tomorrow This afternoon and evening remain a relatively better period for outdoor plans, especially north and west of town. Thunderstorm chances and intensity are lower than tomorrow. So far, downpours have mainly been south and east of town. Tomorrow’s storms may be more numerous and widespread, with higher chances for intense downpours and wind damage. Let’s stay weather-aware tomorrow.
Through Tonight: Humidity remains high, definitely feeling like midsummer. Any showers, storms, or downpours diminish quickly after midnight. Some patchy fog could develop before dawn, especially favored in the areas that received rain earlier in the night. Skies have a few stars, under partly cloudy conditions. Low temperatures merely dip to the muggy 70s.
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Tomorrow (Sunday): Rain is virtually guaranteed as the stage is set for potential flooding downpours. A trough, weak low pressure system, and a cold front all enter our region’s moist, humid air mass. Despite not seeing too much sunshine, high dew points well into the 70s allow high temperatures in the 83 to 89 degree range to feel like 90s.
Outdoor plans before 9 a.m. have the best chance of staying dry. The lowest chance for dryness may be the mid- to late afternoon hours — when strong to severe storms are most likely. Threats include flooding downpours (over one inch of rain per hour), damaging wind gusts (over 57 mph) and the slightest chance of large hail (over one inch diameter).
The heaviest and most widespread strong to severe storms die out by late evening, but moderate rains may still roam the region into the early morning hours — so we may still need to remain watchful for patchy flooding. Low temperatures remain warm and somewhat sticky, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies should clear somewhat before dawn.
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Thunderstorms tomorrow threaten flash flooding and damaging wind
One or two rounds of strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow. Overall, our region has a 2 out of 5 (“Slight”) chance that we see a severe storm in any given location (see yellow shading, below). We’ll have plenty of moisture and lift in the atmosphere to provide severe storm ingredients.
We have more than one threat that any severe storm could bring us. First, we have at least a 15 percent chance of excessive rainfall (over one inch of rain per hour) produced from flooding downpours within thunderstorms. This is why we have a flood watch issued for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Next, we have at least a 15 percent chance of damaging wind gusts over 57 mph. Also shaded in the yellow below.
Not to be completely forgotten, we have a small 5 to 10 percent chance of large hail (over one inch diameter) possible, too.
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Source: The Washington Post
