Russia's Grip on Bakhmut May Be Slipping to Ukraine's Counteroffensive: ISW
Russia may be losing its grip on Bakhmut, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive possibly poised to regain control of the war-ravaged city, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin announced in May that his mercenary fighters had taken control of the Donetsk city after months of bloody battles that had become a focal point of the war. Wagner forces later withdrew from the city and handed it over to the regular Russian military as Ukraine continued fighting to regain control.
An ISW report published on Monday notes that Ukrainian military sources are now claiming that Bakhmut is surrounded and that the city and Russian supply routes around it are "under fire control," meaning that all Russian troops are in range of Ukrainian weapons at every point.
The U.S-based think tank said the development could mean that Ukraine is finding success in its plan to "trap" Russian forces within the city. ISW said that Ukraine's tactics may be "credibly threatening" Russia's ability to maintain control of Bakhmut.
A Ukrainian tank is pictured heading toward the Russian-controlled city of Bakhmut in Donetsk, Ukraine, on July 1, 2023. The Institute for the Study of War said on Monday that the Ukrainian counteroffensive may be "credibly threatening" Russia's ability to maintain control over the war-torn city. GENYA SAVILOV/AFP
"Ukrainian officials have recently signaled that Ukraine seeks to trap Russian forces within the city, and it appears that Ukrainian operations in the Bakhmut area in recent days have been intended to slowly envelop Russian troops in Bakhmut and on its flanks," the ISW report states.
ISW went on to say that "persistent signaling" by Ukrainian officials about Bakhmut and "clear concern" from pro-Russia military bloggers suggested that "Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in this direction may be credibly threatening the Russian hold on Bakhmut, although it is far too early to forecast the liberation of the city."
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said in a Telegram post on Monday that troops near Bakhmut had "been keeping the entrances, exits and movement of the enemy through the city under fire control for several days."
"This became possible due to the fact that, in the process of advancing, our troops took control of the main commanding heights around Bakhmut," said Maliar.
Read more Putin ally delivers blow to Russia Putin ally delivers blow to Russia
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment on Monday.
Despite some purported success near Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that progress in the counteroffensive is "not fast," especially when compared to the wildly successful counteroffensive that began in September.
Ukraine's earlier counteroffensive saw the country retake over 500 Russian-occupied settlements and more than 4,600 square miles of its territory in less than a month.
The recent effort has been much slower, with a Ukrainian military official saying last week that nine settlements had been liberated and over 60 square miles of territory regained in roughly the same timeframe.
An ISW report published last week maintained that the "steady, gradual advances" of the counteroffensive were "not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas."
A video released by Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security on Sunday urges "patience" regarding the counteroffensive, pointing out that the reality of war is not like "video games."
Source: Newsweek
