North Korea’s latest ballistic missile is its most powerful yet
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SEOUL — North Korea has taken a significant step toward perfecting an intercontinental ballistic missile system designed to put the United States within range, analysts said on Thursday, as Kim Jong Un’s regime pushes ahead with its weapons development. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine. ArrowRight The Hwasong-18 ICBM reached a height of more than 3,800 miles during its almost-vertical flight on Wednesday — twice as high as the first launch of this kind of missile in April and 16 times as high as the International Space Station. It flew for a record 74 minutes.
“While not without limitations, North Korea has gotten very close to achieving a missile capacity to strike the U.S. mainland,” said Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at Seoul-based Korea Defense Security Forum.
LOFTED TRAJECTORIES To avoid other countries, North Korea launches test missiles at a much higher-than-normal trajectory — nearly straight up — so missiles come down in the Sea of Japan (East Sea). CHINA JAPAN 400 MILES MARCH 24, 2022 3,850 miles JULY 12, 2023 MARCH 15, 2023 3,728 miles 70 minutes 3,728 miles Flew for 74 minutes NOV. 29, 2017 2,796 miles JULY 28, 2017 2,300 miles JULY 4, 2017 1,740 miles MAY 14, 2017 Int’l. Space Station orbit: 250 miles 1,300 miles SOUTH KOREA RUSSIA CHINA JAPAN Pacific Ocean Trajectories shown are approximate. Sources: CNS North Korea Missile Testing Database and Japan Ministry of Defense THE WASHINGTON POST MARCH 24, 2022 3,850 miles LOFTED TRAJECTORIES JULY 12, 2023 3,728 miles To avoid other countries, North Korea launches test missiles at a much higher-than-normal trajectory — nearly straight up — so missiles come down in the Sea of Japan (East Sea). Flew for 74 minutes MARCH 15, 2023 3,728 miles Flew for 70 minutes NOV. 29, 2017 2,796 miles CHINA JULY 28, 2017 2,300 miles JAPAN JULY 4, 2017 400 MILES 1,740 miles MAY 14, 2017 1,300 miles International Space Station orbit: 250 miles SOUTH KOREA RUSSIA CHINA TAIWAN JAPAN Pacific Ocean —PHILIPPINES Trajectories shown are approximate. —Guam (U.S.) Sources: CNS North Korea Missile Testing Database and Japan Ministry of Defense THE WASHINGTON POST
As usual, North Korea aimed for height not distance with the launch to try ensure the missile did not hit land. It traveled about 600 miles, splashing down off the coast of Japan.
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“North Korea’s next goal will be firing its ICBM at a normal angle into the Pacific” to demonstrate its ability to send a warhead across the ocean, Shin said.
North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile activities are banned under U.N. Security Council resolutions, which led to the current sanctions regime. The council will hold a public meeting on Thursday to discuss the latest launch.
Kim, the North’s leader, supervised Wednesday’s launch outside Pyongyang and called for “more intense efforts to implement the line of bolstering nuclear war deterrent,” citing security threats by “the hostile forces.” He warned the United States and South Korea that “a series of stronger military offensives” will follow unless the two allies curtail their confrontations, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency reported on Thursday.
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North Korean state media said the Hwasong-18 flew as high as 4,131 miles, consistent with Japanese estimates.
If fired on a normal trajectory, it would be capable of traveling more than 8,000 miles, said Shin Seung-ki, a research fellow at the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, easily reaching the continental United States.
Solid propellant, made by packing fuel and oxidizer together into a hard mixture, is dense, stable and can be preloaded onto a rocket. This feature enables solid-fuel missiles to be deployed more quickly and avoid early detection.
Liquid propellant, used in North Korea’s older ICBM systems, requires fuel and oxidizer to be loaded on-site ahead of a launch, which results in more preparation steps. While liquid fuel provides a greater propulsion than its solid counterpart, the slow-moving preparation can be a major disadvantage in the field. Most countries with ICBM capability, including Russia, China and the United States, maintain a mix of solid- and liquid-propelled types.
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Firing a Hwasong-18 missile twice was a “notable achievement that underscores North Korea’s prowess in solid-propellant technology,” said Vann H. Van Diepen, a former top nonproliferation official at the State Department.
But it is not surprising given North Korea’s previous efforts and the fact that the technology is now 60 years old and used by its allies, Russia and China.
The solid-fuel ICBM has been a priority for Kim, but KCNA referred to the latest launch as a “test-fire.” That suggested the North Koreans were not yet ready to declare the Hwasong-18 operational, Van Diepen said.
The country’s scientists would still have gained useful insights from the test to prepare for a full-range launch, analysts said.
Other than the solid-fuel component, North Korea still has new technologies to test and develop for its ICBM system. Its previous lofted-angle launches did not demonstrate whether the missile can survive a fiery reentry into the earth’s atmosphere.
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The next big challenge for Pyongyang’s scientists is developing a nuclear warhead strong enough to withstand the reentry and small enough to be mounted on a missile.
The new Hwasan-31 warhead that North Korea revealed this year appeared too big to be placed on North Korea’s ICBMs, said Shunji Hiraiwa, a North Korea expert at Nanzan University in Japan.
“North Korea will either continue to develop very large liquid-fueled ICBMs and try to acquire the capability to carry multiple warheads, or it will aim to downsize the nuclear warheads by conducting a seventh nuclear test,” he said.
Officials in Washington and Seoul said that the regime has completed preparations for a new round of nuclear tests, but that it has not proceeded with a detonation. It last tested a nuclear device in 2017.
Wednesday’s ICBM launch came in the lead-up to July 27, North Korea’s Victory Day — the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War. Pyongyang usually ramps up actions against South Korea and the United States around this time.
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South Korean Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said Thursday that Seoul detected signs of preparations for a “large-scale military parade” in the North ahead of the anniversary. Satellite photos from last month showed new installations and large gatherings at Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square, where the parade is typically held.
Experts said the Hwasong-18 could be in the spotlight at the parade as a major achievement in North Korea’s weapons development.
Lee reported from Washington. Julia Mio Inuma in Tokyo contributed to this report.
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Source: The Washington Post
