China's Role in Putin's War Might Be Backfiring
China may be undermining its own long-held ambition to block Western nations from its neighborhood, with Beijing's continued backing for Russia serving as the fuel for a gradual—but accelerating—NATO re-evaluation of its Indo-Pacific ties.
Since 2019, NATO summit communiqués have become ever sharper in their references to China. This week's Vilnius declaration included 15 mentions of the People's Republic of China (PRC), noting Beijing's intentions to "increase its global footprint and project power" through a variety of methods including "malicious hybrid and cyber operations and its confrontational rhetoric and disinformation."
China has long railed against any perceived NATO influence or activity in the Indo-Pacific. Ambassador Zhang Jun, Beijing's representative to the United Nations, in February accused the alliance of seeking "to breach its geographic confines and expand its agenda, stoke division and tensions, create confrontations, and strengthen military ties with Asia Pacific countries."
"NATO should abandon the outdated Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, and stop creating imaginary enemies and destabilizing Europe and the Asia-Pacific," Zhang added. "It should contribute to peace and stability in Europe and beyond, instead of merely being a troublemaker."
(L-R) Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol pose for a photo prior to a meeting of the North Atlantic Council and Asia Pacific partners during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023. Deepening ties between NATO and Indo-Pacific democracies have irked Beijing. ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images
But it appears that China's decision to offer tacit support for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine—previously described to Newsweek by Ukrainian lawmakers as "pro-Russian neutrality"—is driving NATO's increasing interest in the Indo-Pacific.
The PRC is not known to have contributed military aid to Russia since February 2022, but its deepening economic and political ties with the Kremlin—plus its continued refusal to condemn Moscow's ruinous full-scale invasion—have made clear Beijing's preference.
Western capitals increasingly fear that Beijing can't be trusted as a legitimate partner in upholding the post-World War II "rules-based international order" designed, and since guarded by, the transatlantic bloc.
The Vilnius declaration made clear NATO has concerns about the growing Beijing-Moscow collaboration.
"The deepening strategic partnership between the PRC and Russia and their mutually reinforcing attempts to undercut the rules-based international order run counter to our values and interests," the document read.
"We call on the PRC to play a constructive role as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to condemn Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, to abstain from supporting Russia's war effort in any way, to cease amplifying Russia's false narrative blaming Ukraine and NATO for Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, and to adhere to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. We particularly call on the PRC to act responsibly and refrain from providing any lethal aid to Russia."
U.S. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, said the alliance was "working to deepen connections between the Atlantic and Pacific democracies, so they can better work together towards the shared values we all seek." Such principles, he said, include "freedom of navigation and overflight, keeping our shared seas and skies open so that every nation has equal access to our global common space," all of which are areas of regular tensions with Beijing.
And Lithuania—the host of this week's summit and a leading European proponent of a more aggressive response to Chinese coercion—unveiled a new Indo-Pacific strategy. "Lithuania cannot be secure if the world is insecure," tweeted Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.
Ukraine Today, East Asia Tomorrow
The leaders of four Indo-Pacific nations—Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand—attended this week's summit in Vilnius, holding a series of bilateral talks and discussions with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, much to Beijing's consternation.
Their presence, and the content of their discussions, show deepening concern about Chinese power. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said before the talks that "in the current severe international security environment, the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable."
Kishida said last month that "Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow," reflecting how Chinese intentions towards Taiwan, its combative stance in the disputed South China Sea, and continued North Korean agitation are fraying the nerves of Eastern democracies.
At a United States Institute of Peace event on Tuesday, Tamaki Tsukada—the chargé d'affaires at the Japanese embassy to the U.S.—told attendees that the "deepening of the Russia-China strategic partnership, and of course [the] most strikingly evident development is the Ukraine war."
"The reason why Japan supports the Ukraine war efforts and participates in the economic sanctions against Russia is not because we're asked to participate, it's in our own interests," Tsukada added. "The Russia-China partnership is going to stay for the foreseeable future."
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (R) and Japan's Vice Defense Minister Toshiro Ino (L) pose with an F-2 fighter plane during a visit to the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force Iruma Air Base in Sayama, Saitama Prefecture, on January 31, 2023. NATO and its Asian partners are drawing closer in the face of threats from Russia, China and North Korea. KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP via Getty Images
Tsukada said NATO's growing focus on the Indo-Pacific is tied to the war in Ukraine. "Russia's war efforts in Ukraine are only sustainable if China continues to support Russia," he said. "NATO has an interest in monitoring and—if necessary, check—Chinese behavior in the interests of NATO."
The Vilnius declaration did, however, exclude any additional mention of a proposed NATO office in Tokyo, a proposal that prompted Beijing to warn against "group confrontation" and "military confrontation." The plan was delayed in the face of opposition from France, with Paris reportedly concerned about diluting NATO's Euro-Atlantic focus.
Still, Stoltenberg said a potential Japanese office is "still on the table," and Japanese lawmaker Rui Matsukawa said China's potential as a future "security threat" means an East Asian NATO office "wouldn't only be good for Japan."
Even without a new physical office, NATO's ties with Indo-Pacific democracies look set to deepen, as do nascent tensions with Beijing.
The Vilnius declaration, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Wednesday, "confuses right and wrong, reverses black and white, and is full of cold war thinking and ideological bias, which China firmly opposes."
Growing cooperation with NATO's Indo-Pacific partners "will only stir up regional tensions, triggering camp confrontation, and even a new Cold War," he said. "Asia-Pacific countries do not welcome it, and many NATO countries are not in favor of the 'Asia-Pacificisation' of NATO, and the Asia-Pacific region does not need an Asia-Pacific version of NATO."
"We urge NATO to immediately stop distorting, smearing and fabricating lies against China, abandon the outdated concepts of cold war thinking and zero-sum games, give up the erroneous belief in military force and the pursuit of absolute security."
Newsweek has contacted NATO by email to request comment.
Source: Newsweek
