PM Update: Best chances for strong to severe storms may be late this evening into tonight
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Radar courtesy MyRadar | © OpenStreetMap contributors With storms containing downpours and perhaps damaging wind gusts mainly waiting to develop later this evening into the overnight hours, this afternoon and early evening may prove the relatively better period for outdoor plans. So far, only a couple everyday thunderstorms have developed, and well outside of the Beltway. Rain chances remain elevated tomorrow but should ease by late afternoon into early evening.
Through Tonight: Showers, storms and downpour chances increase by late evening and remain moderately high overnight. A couple of storms could be severe with wind gusts over 57 mph or causing brief flooding. If you’re up late, you’ll see the rain activity generally moving from west to east, as the cold front to our west slowly approaches. Otherwise, it’s partly to mostly cloudy and sultry with dew points in the mid-70s. This helps buoy low temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s.
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Tomorrow (Sunday): Numerous showers and a thunderstorm could roam the region, even during the morning hours. Late afternoon and evening hours may actually turn a bit sunnier with vastly reduced rain chances. We’ll need to watch for a couple storms producing damaging wind gusts, but a widespread severe threat isn’t expected. High temperatures aim for the mid-80s to near 90 with humidity barely dropping by day’s end.
Overnight, a slow but steady trickle of drier air moves in and rain chances quickly lower — perhaps one or two stray showers or a storm after sunset but not very likely. Skies turn clear with a bit more tolerable low temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s.
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A few thunderstorms tonight may have intense downpours and damaging wind
At least one round of strong to severe storms is possible later this evening into the pre-dawn hours. Overall, our region has a 1 out of 5 (“Marginal”) chance of seeing a severe storm in any given location (dark green shading, below). The Storm Prediction Center is concerned about damaging winds potentially gusting over 57 mph.
The other threat that any severe storm could bring us is at least a 5 percent chance of Excessive Rainfall (over 1” of rain per hour) produced from flooding downpours within thunderstorms. This threat is also shaded in green, below.
A cold front approaching, along with mid-level vorticity, offers lift and instability for overnight storms. Low-level moisture feeding potential downpours — well, that can definitely be felt when you simply walk outside. Oof.
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Source: The Washington Post
