NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, May 1): Kevin Durant or Jayson Tatum?
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has won two straight MVP awards, and he called Jamal Murray the Nuggets’ best player after their Game 1 win vs. the Suns. That’s obviously not true, but Murray is probably one of the more underrated scorers in basketball. He’s also not afraid of the biggest stages, and he’s taken his game to another level to start the playoffs. He’s averaged 28.3 points per game during the postseason after averaging just 20.0 during the regular season.
Murray’s increased scoring has translated to plenty of fantasy success. He’s scored at least 44.0 DraftKings points in five of six playoff contests, and he’s increased his production to 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark among all of Monday’s point guards.
Despite his recent production, his price tag has actually decreased for Game 2, resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, making him a phenomenal way to start your lineups.
Value
Bruce Brown is a very solid value option on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s an excellent per-minute producer for his price tag, and he’s increased his production to 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Brown is currently projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Chris Paul doesn’t have to do quite as much these days, but he’s still capable of putting together solid fantasy performances. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s already gone for more than 50 fantasy points once during this postseason. He stands out as one of the better pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
The Celtics have a few midrange guard options to consider, but Derrick White stands out as the strongest. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. White has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
There aren’t a ton of injuries to consider on Monday’s two-game slate, but the one exception is a doozy. Joel Embiid is currently considered doubtful for Game 1 vs. the Celtics, and while there’s still a chance he suits up, the 76ers will likely be without their top option vs. the defending Eastern Conference champs.
If Embiid is unable to go, James Harden will be asked to pick up the slack. He saw a +5.7% usage bump with Embiid off the court during the regular season, resulting in an average of 1.44 DraftKings points per minute. Harden has averaged just 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that has the potential to be a massive boost. He’s coming off a strong showing without Embiid in his last contest, finishing with 48.5 DraftKings points in a closeout win over the Nets.
Harden also remains far less expensive than usual at $8,800. He’s only been priced below $9,000 on three previous occasions this season, and he’s averaged 46.58 DraftKings points in those contests. Overall, he stands out as one of the strongest options on the slate.
Value
Tyrese Maxey is another member of the 76ers that will have to pick up the slack if Embiid is sidelined. He saw a 4.9% usage bump with Embiid off the floor during the regular season, trailing only Harden in that department. He also saw a nice uptick in fantasy production, averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute.
Maxey has played at least 39.2 minutes in two of his past three games, giving him plenty of upside at his current price tag. The Celtics are a tough matchup – they were third in defensive efficiency during the regular season – but Maxey is simply too cheap for his current role.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a very safe option at shooting guard, especially given his 89% Bargain Rating of FanDuel. He’s projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone who costs just $4,200 during the postseason. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.50.
Devin Booker came back to reality in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets, but he was still pretty effective. He shot better than 50% from the field, finishing with 27 points, eight assists, and 48.5 DraftKings points. He’s displayed a ceiling of close to 80 fantasy points during the postseason, and his 92% Bargain Rating leads the shooting guard position on DraftKings.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If you didn’t know any better, you could make a strong case that Jaylen Brown was the Celtics’ best player based off his work vs. the Hawks. He averaged just 0.5 fewer points per game than Jayson Tatum, but he was way more efficient. He shot 54.1% from the field and 51.5% from 3-point range, and if not for a subpar 57.9% from the free throw line, he could’ve had an even bigger series. Brown finished up the first round with back-to-back games of at least 31 points, and he scored at least 45.25 DraftKings points in both contests.
Brown is still priced a full -$1,700 cheaper than Tatum on DraftKings, making him the superior value among the Celtics’ wings.
Value
De’Anthony Melton is very affordable at just $4,000 on DraftKings, and he should see plenty of playing time if Embiid is ruled out. He logged at least 27.8 minutes in the final two games vs. the Nets, and he responded with 22.0 and 23.0 DraftKings points. He hasn’t been the greatest per-minute producer over the past month, but his average of 0.85 DraftKings points per minute for the year is excellent for his price tag. Melton will likely be one of the most popular value options on the slate, but he’s tough to pass up at his current salary.
Fast Break
Josh Okogie’s minutes have been tough to pin down during the playoffs. He played 32.8 minutes in the Suns’ Game 5 win over the Clippers, but that figure was just 18.8 in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. His current minute projection is somewhere in between, checking in at 26 in our NBA Models. If he gets to that number, he’ll have a chance to pay off his $3,800 salary.
Tobias Harris can occasionally be overlooked for the 76ers, but he was outstanding in their last game without Embiid. He racked up 48.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 vs. the Nets, finishing with 25 points and 12 rebounds. Harris saw a +4.3% usage bump with Embiid off the floor during the regular season, and he saw one of the bigger spikes in production, as well.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
It’s a tough call between Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum for the top spot at power forward. Neither player has been at their best during the postseason, with both players averaging fewer DKFP per minute than they did during the regular season.
However, Durant is slightly cheaper than Tatum, and I think he has a bit more room for improvement. His decreased numbers vs. the Clippers were due to a lower usage rate than normal. He was still extremely efficient with his chances, but he took a backseat to the scorching-hot Booker. There’s a chance that dynamic changes vs. the Nuggets. Durant’s usage rate was up to 34.4% in Game 1, which represents a massive increase from his average of 24.1% vs. the Clippers.
Durant’s team also needs to win on Monday more than Tatum’s since they’re already in an 0-1 hole. That should result in more playing time for Durant. He has a slightly higher ceiling projection than Tatum, and his cheaper salary also results in a superior projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. has eligibility at both forward spots on FanDuel, and he has a 78% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. That gives him appeal on both sites on Monday.
He’s taken a backseat to Jokic and Murray recently, but MPJ is a capable scorer when needed. He had 25 points in a first-round matchup vs. the Timberwolves, and he’s shot better than 50% from the field and 41% from 3-point range for his career.
MPJ also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Fast Break
Tatum is obviously still a viable option on this slate, particularly given his 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which trails only Jokic among Monday’s options. He didn’t shoot particularly well in the first round, but he made up for it with excellent production in the peripheral categories. He averaged 10.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game, so he has excellent upside if he can get his scoring back on track.
Jeff Green is an interesting punt play on FanDuel. His 79% Bargain Rating is the top mark at the position, and he’s projected for roughly 15% ownership. He’s a viable target in stars-and-scrubs lineup constructions.
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NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic got off to a slow start this postseason, but he is still one of the top producers in fantasy. In fact, with Giannis Antetokounmpo out and Embiid banged up, the gap between Jokic and the rest of the field is only getting wider. He’s racked up at least 55.75 DraftKings points in four straight games, including two with at least 71.75.
What’s scary is that Jokic didn’t even play particularly well in his last contest. He had just five assists – well below his season average of 9.8 – and he shot just 9-21 from the field. Jokic was above 63% during the regular season, so he has plenty of room for improvement in Game 2. If Jokic can put up nearly 60 fantasy points in a bad game, it goes without saying that his ceiling is astronomical in a good one.
This matchup also stands out as the better of the two options on Monday. Not only is the 229.0-point total significantly higher, but the Nuggets are listed as just 4.5-point favorites.
Value
Deandre Ayton provides a very safe floor at his current salary. He’s a great bet for a double-double on most nights, although he did struggle to just 14 points and seven boards in Game 1 vs. the Nuggets. Having to share the ball with Booker, Durant, and CP3 keeps his ceiling low, but he’s averaged 35.3 DraftKings points per game this season. That would be more than enough to pay off his current salary, and he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Paul Reed will likely get an opportunity to start if Embiid is sidelined, which is a very appealing prospect for fantasy purposes. He averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute during the regular season, and he racked up 36.0 FanDuel points in place of Embiid in their last game. He’s been priced way up, but he’s still capable of returning value if Embiid is sidelined.
Source: Fantasy Labs
