Joe Ryan Worth the Popularity? (July 16)
Sunday wraps up the weekend with a 10-game featured slate beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, including the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road against LHP Yusei Kikuchi. On the pitching front, there are several core options, along with tournament target LHP Justin Steele against the Red Sox in the Windy City.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target: LHP Justin Steele vs. Boston Red Sox — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $43
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has marked RHPs Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer as having a better median fantasy projection today than the rest of the pitching options. However, going against the Padres and Dodgers does not bring any warm and fuzzy feelings. Next up is RHP Zach Eflin, though there are weather concerns in Kansas City and the Tampa Bay hurler is commanding a five-figure salary on both DraftKings ($10,000) and FanDuel ($10,500). Offsetting that is the matchup against the Royals, who have a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is the second highest in the league.
Slightly down the list, though still spendy, is LHP Justin Steele taking on the Red Sox in Chicago. Boston does a good job of limiting strikeouts against left-handed pitching, with the projected lineup carrying a collective 17.9% strikeout rate over the last season-plus. Steele did miss the first half of June with a sore elbow, but in his four starts since then, he has tallied 88, 96, 89 and 74 pitches. The first-time All-Star threw 10 pitches on Tuesday in the Mid-Summer Classic; however, his last start for the Cubs was on July 5.
Only twice this season has the 28-year-old allowed more than three runs, and in 12 of his outings he has ceded two or fewer runs. Tournaments only, but Steele is looking like a strong play, with only 12% to 17% of the field clicking on his name this afternoon on DraftKings and around 5% to 8% on FanDuel.
Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Martin Perez vs. Cleveland Guardians — 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,000 | FanDuel $7,200 | Yahoo $26
On DraftKings and Yahoo, LHP Martin Perez is a tremendous bargain for an SP2, particularly on the latter site, where he is only a dollar above the minimum pitcher salary. Yes, he has a pair of negative-fantasy-point performances in his last four games, but those came at the hands of the Astros and Rays juggernaut offenses. The 31-year-old southpaw offers little in the way of strikeouts, but that is fine for this matchup considering the Guardians have one of the lowest strikeout rates against left-handed pitchers over the last two years.
Perez is good at inducing groundballs and limiting free passes, which is not particularly conducive to top-end fantasy scores, but he typically goes deep enough into games to qualify for the win and flirt with quality starts. The main appeal is the dramatic salary savings that can be earmarked towards the big bats today.
If the recent negative performances of Perez have you feeling nervous, then RHP Jack Flaherty is a pivot towards another bargain bin option. The one knock against Flaherty is the weather risk, which could end up with an in-game delay, as there have been storms around St. Louis all weekend. Keep tabs on the forecast as we get closer to lock to see if there is a suitable window between the rain drops for the Nationals and Cardinals to wrap up their series.
Late Slate Pitching Thoughts
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
There are just two games on the late slate, so here are some quick pitching thoughts for my fellow degenerates. This in turn should help influence your offensive selections.
Joe Ryan at OAK — 3.4 implied runs: The Athletics are at risk of being swept in Oakland by the Twins, though the A’s have been frisky with 11 runs in the first two games. Ryan is on the cusp of being a Tier 1 starter, though he is not quite at that level of consistency. This will be a good test to see if he can close out the sweep and keep the A’s off the scoreboard. He is going to be wildly popular, so a one-off bat or two against him is the path for differentiation.
JP Sears vs. MIN — 4.8 implied runs: The low salary and the K-happy Twinkies have Sears in play this afternoon as the secondary option. Four projected Minnesota starters have a strikeout rate north of 28% against lefties this season, and the power is lacking as well. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Kyle Farmer are the biggest concerns, so using them as a one-off on the Sears rosters is also a savvy strategy.
Bryce Miller vs. DET — 3.5 implied runs: This afternoon, the rookie is slated to be activated from the injured list after suffering a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand. He should be good to go, and aside from the Motor City Kitties having plated 11 runs in the first two games, this is a strong matchup. The only thing knocking him below Sears is the massive popularity of Miller in tournaments.
Reese Olson at SEA — 4.7 implied runs: The Mariners were a mess last night in a 6-0 loss to the Tigers. They did have six walks, but only three hits and 12 strikeouts left a lot of runners on base. Olson is stretched out and a starter, but in his final first half appearance last Sunday, he was used as a reliever for two innings and just 20 pitches. Detroit is likely to be looking to limit his workload, keeping him on a starter’s rotation but capping his outings around 70 to 75 pitches, as he is on pace for a career-high 135 innings.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Yusei Kikuchi — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
This afternoon the Arizona Diamondbacks are going overlooked, likely because of their low 4.3 implied run total. On the mound for the Blue Jays is LHP Yusei Kikuchi, who often finds himself in both sections of this article series. Today we are going to target Kikuchi with the power bats of the D-backs.
Kikuchi does a good job of limiting walks; however, as a fly ball pitcher, he ends up ceding more than his share of home runs. Over the last two seasons, the southpaw has allowed a .204 ISO to same-handed batsmen, while righties have a ridiculously high .246 ISO during the same window.
Look to Christian Walker, Evan Longoria and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as the trio to target, with a cheap Ahmed Rosario at the bottom of the order for differentiation, or switch-hitting leadoff man Ketel Marte at the top. Though he is no longer an everyday player, Longoria still crushes lefties, and in 76 plate appearances this season he has a .388 wOBA, .299 ISO and a 10.5% walk rate. Walker has blossomed into a complete hitter who has extra-base upside against pitchers of either handedness, and former Blue Jay Gurriel is fresh off his first All-Star appearance and locked in at the plate.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Tanner Bibee — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has tabbed the Texas Rangers once again as a team to target in their matchup against rookie RHP Tanner Bibee. The 24-year-old is a top prospect for the Guardians, and he has had a great season so far. The main weakness in his game is control, as major league hitters have been able to lay off pitches outside the zone, resulting in 18 walks over his last 35.2 innings.
Bibee has allowed just six home runs across 70 innings, but at the rate he is issuing free passes, the Rangers should have extra opportunities this afternoon to bat with runners on board. Texas literally has an All-Star offense, with Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim all earning that honor this season. That plus a strong back of the lineup with Travis Jankowski, Ezequiel Duran, and Leody Tavares and extra-base hit maven Nate Lowe make this a malleable team to stack in a myriad of ways.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
This afternoon, Jarred Kelenic looks like intriguing option in the sports wagering market for his home run prop. The new True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that, while the enigmatic slugger is +560 to hit a home run, his “true odds” of +490 indicate a market inefficiency of nearly 5%.
Kelenic has not hit a round-tripper since he sent one out of the park in Anaheim on June 9 against RHP Shohei Ohtani. Still, the tools are all there for the 24-year-old to emerge as a late-blooming prospect, and to his credit, he has 11 home runs and 11 steals this season, with a .248 average that has almost moved his career .199 figure above the Mendoza line. Yes, these are long odds, so keep this wager in the “entertainment range” with just a couple bucks on it — purely to spice up the viewing experience.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, July 16 | MLB DFS Picks
Once again there are a few trouble spots in the Midwest, with Kansas City and St. Louis the venues to watch. The East Coast has early rain in Baltimore, which should clear in time for the game. However, New York and Philadelphia are precipitation risks as well, which means we have yet another uncontrolled variable to account for today.
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Source: stokastic.com
