Europe, Italy could see hottest weather on record Tuesday
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A severe and prolonged heat wave in Southern Europe is set to peak Tuesday and Wednesday, threatening all-time records for several countries and the continent overall. The heat wave, referred to as Cerebrus in Europe, has brought temperatures above 100 degrees (38 Celsius) from Spain to Italy and Greece, as well as several surrounding countries over the past week.
The unyielding and debilitating temperatures have prompted red alerts for health dangers and fueled a number of major wildfires. The extreme temperatures even led Greek authorities to close the Acropolis during the afternoon’s peak sun on several days.
In Italy, where energy demand has caused sporadic power outages, officials are taking unique measures to encourage heat safety, such as asking celebrities to appear on television to broadcast safety messages.
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The sweltering temperatures come after the journal Nature reported that more than 60,000 peopled died in Europe in heat waves last summer.
The heat so far
On Monday, dozens of locations from Spain to Italy baked in triple-digit heat, part of a week-long assault on many countries across southern Europe and the Mediterranean, even extending into western Asia and northern Africa.
The scorching conditions started late last week, when Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey recorded multiple days of temperatures near and past 100 degrees. After the heat was briefly squashed to the far south and eastern reaches of Europe, it surged back northward.
On Sunday, the Italian island of Sardinia saw temperatures rise to 106 at the Decimomannu Air Base near the southern coastal city of Cagliari.
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Monday’s temperatures rose even higher as the heat expanded. This trend is forecast to continue Tuesday.
Several monthly heat records were set Monday at locations in Spain, Italy, Bosnia and France, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.
It was at least 111 degrees (44 Celsius) in Granada, about 200 miles south of Madrid, on Monday afternoon. It also reached at least 108 degrees (42 Celsius) in Ciudad Real, about 100 miles south of Madrid. The capital city itself had a high of at least 106 degrees (41 Celsius).
The mercury also reached or surpassed the 100-degree mark in Montenegro and Bosnia.
The forecast
Rome is among cities expected to shatter all-time heat records on Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to easily surpass the standing high mark of 105 degrees, set in August 2007.
The heat and attendant dry weather is also exacerbating drought and fire concerns in parts of the region.
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Evacuations were ordered for several towns near two large fires around Athens in southern Greece. On the Spanish island of La Palma, a forest fire forced thousands of people to evacuate over the weekend. The most consistent heat and dry weather have focused on northwest Africa and into Spain.
This heat wave could produce the highest temperature Europe has ever observed. “The highest temperature in European history was broken on 11 August 2021, when a temperature of 48.8°C [119.8°F] was recorded in Floridia, an Italian town in the Sicilian province of Syracuse,” wrote the European Space Agency. “That record may be broken again in the coming days.”
After the bout of extreme heat Tuesday into Wednesday, indications are that another record-testing pulse may spread west and north across the Mediterranean later this week and into the weekend.
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In the weather model simulations above, a comparison of temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground show atmospheric temperatures at historically high levels during both episodes.
Excessive heat risk to last through the summer
Through the rest of summer, forecasts generally project above-normal temperatures to continue across much of Europe. While cooler air has visited northern and western parts of the continent in recent days, it is anticipated that heat will also expand north toward the British Isles into August.
Bouts of exceptionally hot weather have frequently targeted Europe in recent years. Like Canada, Europe is in the part of the world that has warmed faster than average amid human-caused climate change.
A study in May found that the chance of what were once rare heat waves in Europe is projected to spike as the climate warms. In other words, exceptional heat waves in today’s climate will become normal in the future.
This graph by @ed_hawkins gets the key point across more quickly.
Previously record shattering tempreatures will be the norm in Europe by the 2040’s and below average by the 2060s.https://t.co/hoq8MLCjoI pic.twitter.com/gOPvGElLDT — Dr. Aaron Thierry (@ThierryAaron) July 17, 2023
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Source: The Washington Post
