MLB Strikeout Projections & Picks Today | Daily Leader Prop Odds for Friday, July 21
A unique prop market that has emerged at FanDuel this year is daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
Action Network director of analytics Sean Koerner dives through MLB pitcher props regularly.
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Unsurprisingly, the favorite in today’s market is Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani at +220. He gets an appealing matchup at home against the cellar-dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates. Behind him is Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros against the Oakland Athletics, Lance Lynn of the White Sox at +700 against the Minnesota Twins, and Lynn’s counterpart, Joe Ryan, at +750.
Ohtani should be the favorite, but the best value on the board right now is actually the other pitcher in the game, Johan Oviedo of the Pirates at +4400. He’s coming off a 10-K game and has the upside to take down this market as he’s thrown 97+ pitches in six straight games, something that is key in this market. Kyle Bradish of the Baltimore Orioles offers similar value at +4000 as he faces the Tampa Bay Rays.
Koerner’s favorite bet among the favorites is Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta, who is 19/1 against the Atlanta Braves, a number Koerner says is simply too high.
There are a handful of 100/1 guys who offer enough value to be worth a flier. One of those guys is rookie Gavin Williams of the Cleveland Guardians. In general, though, considering there is value on a handful of pitchers and we only really get to attack this market once or twice a week, this isn’t a situation where I’m only placing one or two bets and calling it a day. Sprinkling your bankroll on a number of candidates is the better way to approach it.
Below, you can find Koerner’s projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Friday, July 21. The chart includes all pertinent info regarding his recommended wagers and is based off a $1,000 bankroll using the Kelly Criterion. If you’re unfamiliar, Kelly gives you bet sizes based on your bankroll, theoretical edge and risk tolerance. You can use our Odds Calculator to figure out your edge as well.
Source: The Action Network
