How Ukraine's NATO Bid Went Off the Rails in Vilnius
Ukraine's NATO lobbying campaign failed to win the desired commitments at this month's alliance summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, perhaps—according to Newsweek sources in and close to the Ukrainian government—due to German pressure on the White House.
Ukraine's bid for a concrete timeline for a NATO invitation or ultimate accession was defeated by combined German-American opposition, early signs of which prompted President Volodymyr Zelensky to decry the negotiations as "absurd."
NATO leaders, and eventually Zelensky, lauded the summit as a landmark for NATO's renewed focus on deterring Russia, and a pivotal step on Ukraine's journey into the pillars of the Euro-Atlantic community.
But the vagueness of the eventual Vilnius communiqué—and its similarity to the infamous 2008 Bucharest declaration by which Ukraine was blocked from NATO accession by France and Germany—has left lingering concerns that Kyiv is not as close to alliance membership as it hoped.
"I don't think that they are convinced," said one source close to Zelensky's office with knowledge of the discussions, who spoke with Newsweek on the condition of anonymity so as to speak candidly. "They're not stupid. I don't think that they really see themselves as that much closer to NATO today, relative to the day before the Vilnius summit."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 12, 2023. Zelensky hit out at NATO allies during the summit for what he said was an "absurd" lack of clarity on Ukraine's timeline for accession. LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images
Declaration Drama
The careful wording of NATO communiqués—which are released during or after every major summit—is hammered out by member state diplomats in the months and weeks leading up to the meetings themselves. By the time leaders descend on summit venues, almost all of the content has already been agreed.
German and American caution on the wording was widely reported in the lead-up to the summit. Both President Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz had made clear they would not risk a direct NATO conflict with Russia by inviting Ukraine into the alliance in the midst of a war.
But national leaders were simultaneously declaring that Ukraine would not be disappointed with the outcome. Zelensky's public frustration during the Vilnius summit hinted at last-minute amends made without Ukraine's knowledge.
"The Ukrainians were asking for a line that the assistance that's being provided, and will be provided, to Ukraine isn't a substitute for membership," the source close to Zelensky's administration said.
Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron both agreed to the proposal, they added, seemingly a major win for Kyiv given the ghosts of Bucharest.
But the White House and National Security Council did not, the source said. "They kept saying that this is a red line for them. It just made the Ukrainians very suspicious. Later on, we found out that it was really the Germans pushing the administration, the NSC, to not agree to this language. Even though they were telling the Ukrainians they were fine with it."
Newsweek reached out to the White House and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry for comment.
A German Foreign Ministry spokesperson told Newsweek that the government "does not comment on confidential exchanges and negotiations," though added: "The text of the Vilnius Summit Communiqué stands for itself and reflects the consensus of the Alliance."
"The communiqué clearly states the progress of Ukraine on its path to full Euro-Atlantic integration," the spokesperson added.
A Ukrainian artilleryman fires a howitzer at Russian positions near Bakhmut, on July 20, 2023. One of Kyiv's key post-war goals is accession to the NATO alliance. GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images
The eventual communiqué said: "Ukraine's future is in NATO. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and today we recognize that Ukraine's path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan."
Allies, the document added, had committed to support Kyiv in the required security and democratic reforms "on its path towards future membership. We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met."
The initial proposal was weaker, the source close to Zelensky's office said. "They said that Ukraine would be included in the Euro-Atlantic community. That was the initial proposal. They did not want to use the word 'membership.' And they didn't want to use the word 'NATO.' That's got such a big hole you can drive several trucks through it."
The drama at Vilnius has exacerbated long-held Ukrainian fears of a Western "sell-out," by which Kyiv's exclusion from NATO serves as an olive branch to the Kremlin. Painful memories of Bucharest and the Minsk agreements—which sought to end the fighting between Kyiv and eastern separatists organized, armed, and eventually reinforced by Moscow—still linger in the collective Ukrainian memory.
"This sort of muddled messaging, lack of commitment from the Ukrainian perspective, of things done or said, has raised questions about whether maybe someone is cutting some sort of deal with the Russians," the source with knowledge of the talks explained.
Putin 'At the Table'
More than a week after Vilnius, Zelensky and his top officials are touting the success of the summit from the Ukrainian perspective. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, told Newsweek the meeting was "positively surprising."
"On Ukraine, allies have made it clear that Ukraine is sitting as an equal partner at the table and the decisions are taken jointly, that nothing on Ukraine will be discussed [without] Ukraine," said Stefanishyna, who attended the summit with Zelensky.
Still, the deputy prime minister acknowledged the "negative emotion" around the wording of the declaration. "They didn't have 100 percent clarity on issues related to invitation," she explained.
The problem for Kyiv, Stefanishyna said, "is that one of the allies basically had Putin at the table" and was creating new, and unclear, conditions for Ukrainian accession. Stefanishyna declined to say which country, though noted Ukraine was not frustrated with the conduct of the U.S. or of France.
"Knowing this country and knowing the context of the years before, we had a clear assumption that these conditions would not be about reforms. These conditions will be to put pressure on Ukraine on issues related to ending the war, the peace talks, and so on," she said.
"This will not send a good message to Russia," Stefanishyna added. "It would show the message that nothing as regards Ukraine has evolved, and Russia still has a say...This was an absolute red line for us."
"Emotions were there, I cannot deny it or hide that. They were extremely justified. It took us 24 hours after Vilnius to get back to reality. But we knew what we were talking about. And we knew that it's nearly impossible, 15 years after Bucharest, to have the same country over the table saying no to Ukraine."
"We didn't know what kind of conditions and circumstances would have to lead to the understanding that finally Ukraine has to be brought back to a family of democratic nations. It's an existential issue, and it's nearly impossible to be that cruel."
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz deplanes at the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, 2023. Ukraine has been frustrated by Berlin's perceived hesitance to back Kyiv against Russia. ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images
She added of Zelensky's public condemnation of NATO: "When a last-minute change is happening, there's no way that you can act as if nothing has happened."
German hesitance has irked Kyiv since the beginning of its conflict with Russia in 2014. Berlin has begun pivoting to a more robust posture on Russia since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with its major military spending boost and provision of advanced weapons to Ukraine cited as evidence of the country's security "zeitenwende."
But Berlin has still been one of the most tentative Ukrainian backers. "Germany is afraid of Russia," Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament and chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek.
In conversations with German counterparts in the lead-up to Vilnius, Merezhko said, "I told them they a chance to recognize the mistake they had made at the Bucharest summit and correct it."
Asked how they answered, Merezhko replied: "Silence. The answer was the blowing of the wind."
While Germany has been accused of dragging its feet, the U.S. has undoubtedly been Ukraine's most important backer. The Biden administration has led the Western world in military aid, financial support, and political backing.
But Biden's White House is also heavily invested in America's relationship with Germany. Repairing the damage done to Washington-Berlin ties by his predecessor, President Donald Trump, was a prime foreign policy goal for the Biden administration. Some in Kyiv are now concerned the White House will prioritize German comfort over theirs.
Others, though, saw the U.S.-German reluctance as a shared position. Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament who attended the Vilnius summit, told Newsweek it was clear from the outset that the Americans and Germans were both against stronger language.
"I think they were coordinated, together they had the common position," Goncharenko said. "Personally, from what I know, I don't believe that it was Germany who pressed the United States. Quite the opposite. If the United States would say yes, Germany will say yes too; that was the common appreciation of the situation."
Ukraine's 'Red Line'
A tense NATO summit ended all smiles with the bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Biden. The warm exchanges between the two leaders, the source close to Zelensky's office told Newsweek, somewhat settled Ukrainian nerves frayed by communiqué intrigues.
"What ultimately compensated for all this was what President Biden said and what Secretary General Stoltenberg said at the summit," the source said, adding that the two men's vows of future Ukrainian membership and open-ended Western support for Kyiv were felt to be heartfelt and genuine.
Stefanishyna, too, said Biden's influence was vital.
"President Biden has personally, on his behalf, made a clear message that Ukraine is to become a member of NATO," the deputy prime minister said. "It has lifted away any concerns. By the end of our visit, the president was much more confident and clear about the decisions and messaging given to us."
Asked if Kyiv felt genuine consensus on its membership goal, Stefanishyna responded: "I can confirm it 100 percent. And this can also be seen through the, let's say, transformation of the president through the two days."
U.S. President Joe Biden (R) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023. Their warm exchange eased Ukrainian concerns around the vague summit declaration, sources told Newsweek. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images
Stefanishyna reported three primary messages from Zelensky's series of meetings. First, was that there would be "no pressure on Ukraine on ending the war and the victory of Ukraine on Ukraine's conditions only. And nothing related to NATO integration will be used or speculated upon in that regard."
"Secondly, a very clear and precise message that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and the third is about the security guarantees," which Stefanishyna described as a "major accomplishment" and "not a substitute for the membership process."
"Now the major task is to enforce all of it to preserve this energy, this political commitment and to translate it into very practical steps: making sure that NATO-Ukraine Council is operating permanently, making sure that all the decisions on Ukraine are taken bilaterally as equals, and that we really feel with contact everything related to interoperability with NATO," she said.
Ukrainian leaders have acknowledged that they will not be invited to join NATO while the war is ongoing. This, they say, is another reason for the Western alliance to supercharge military aid for Ukraine to speed up Moscow's defeat.
Officials in Kyiv, and their compatriots, are intolerant of Western hesitance. Several exchanges at Vilnius demonstrated simmering tensions between Ukraine and its most important NATO backers, even as all parties celebrated the robustness of the NATO-European Union position.
Any hint of exclusion from the two blocs will be met head-on in Ukraine, Stefanishyna said. "We are a country at war," she explained. "We are surviving, we are reforming. And we are fighting for everyone who is not in a position to see the victory of Ukraine: those who died, who suffered, who have been tortured, who have been raped."
"Any slight feeling that there might be a manipulation about something 90 percent of Ukrainian people support, is a red line for us."
Source: Newsweek
