Yankees vs. Mets prediction
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The Mets actually looked like a superstar-laden team on Tuesday.
Justin Verlander struck out six over six shutout innings, and the lineup strung together nine runs on 12 hits and three homers, including two dingers from Pete Alonso.
Meanwhile, the Yankees continued to look like nine fools on a Little League field.
Domingo German allowed six earned, and the lineup could only muster three runs despite walking eight times.
Five hits from five different players won’t get it done.
The Yanks are now 2.5 games back of the third American League Wild Card spot.
But Carlos Rodon is back! The Yankees should surge with their $162-million Ace back in the rotation.
I’m not so sure.
Yankees vs. Mets pick
7:05 p.m. ET, YES
Probable pitchers: Jose Quintana (LHP) vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP)
Actually, I’m betting both starting pitchers put up duds on Wednesday.
Since his return to the rotation, Rodon’s allowed 12 earned runs across three starts, posting a 7.36 ERA across 14 ⅔ innings.
His stuff looks solid, but he can’t find the zone (13.8% walk rate, 24.2% Called Strike plus Whiff rate) and isn’t generating any soft contact (42.2% Hard-Hit rate, 40% ground-ball rate).
Rodon will improve as the season progresses, but he’s not stretched out yet.
The Mets got Jose Quintana back from injury a week ago, and he toes the mound today – a welcome addition for a thin rotation.
Quintana put up five innings of two-run ball in his return, striking out three.
Jose Quintana Getty Images
But that was against the lifeless White Sox, and his velocity was down a tick across his arsenal.
I’m hesitant to buy.
I’d rather sell.
It’s also worth mentioning the Yankees have been a top-10 lineup against left-handed pitching over the past month (.820 OPS, 125 wRC+).
Yes, I didn’t believe that when I saw it, either. But the Bronx Bombers could live up to their name against Quintana.
And as I preached on this website in yesterday’s Subway Series betting preview, these are two bad bullpens.
The Mets are a bottom-five bullpen by almost every statistical measurement, and they used five relievers in Tuesday’s win. They’re flawed and tired.
Meanwhile, Yankee relievers have a 4.73 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over the past two weeks.
Betting on Baseball?
Ultimately, last-place teams boast last-place arms, so run prevention will be near-impossible on Wednesday, even against subpar lineups.
These two lackluster lineups put together 12 combined runs on Tuesday to cash the over. Wednesday’s starting pitchers are worse, and the bullpen arms are gassed.
I expect a similar game script on Wednesday, so I’m betting the over hits again.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction
Over 8.5 runs (-120, PointsBet)
Source: New York Post
