NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, May 6): Lakers Backcourt Providing Value
Saturday features a two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Warriors were able to win Game 2 in convincing fashion, evening their series vs. the Lakers at one game apiece. Steph Curry racked up a double-double in that contest, finishing with 20 points and 12 assists in just 29.5 minutes. He’s projected for closer to 39 minutes on Saturday’s slate, so he should see significantly more playing time if Game 3 is more competitive.
Curry has also averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which is easily the top mark at the point guard position. No one else has averaged more than 1.15 DraftKings points per minute, and his ceiling projection leads the position by nearly 15 points.
Curry leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, while his $9,900 salary comes with an 83% Bargain Rating.
Value
Kyle Lowry also owns an 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he’s saved his best basketball for the postseason. Lowry struggled mightily during the regular season, but he’s increased his production to 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five contests on FanDuel, including 46.0 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Knicks.
Fast Break
Jordan Poole has been an absolute rollercoaster during the postseason, capable of shooting the Warriors into and out of any single game. That has resulted in limited minutes of late, which has held him to 17.25 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games. However, the exception was Game 1 vs. the Lakers, where Poole erupted for 35.0 DraftKings points in 29.9 minutes. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he typically makes the most of his playing time. Poole is currently projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he approaches that figure, he’s a good bet to return value at $5,200.
D’Angelo Russell has been a big part of the Lakers’ offense recently, scoring at least 35.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. The lone exception was his last outing, where he was limited to just 27.8 minutes in a blowout loss. He stands out as an excellent buy-low target on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 84%.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Klay Thompson is the most expensive option at the position, and he’s scored at least 37.75 DraftKings points in both games to start the second round of the postseason. He had a vintage Thompson performance in Game 2, knocking down eight 3-pointers to propel the Warriors to a victory.
Like Curry, Thompson should see a few more minutes in Game 3 as long as it’s more competitive, and he’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That’s not an elite figure, but it gives him the best combination of per-minute production and playing time upside at the position.
This game also stands out as the clear target of the two. The total currently sits at 228 points, which is nearly 20 points higher than Knicks-Heat.
Value
Austin Reaves has been quiet vs. the Warriors, but he made his presence felt over the second half of the year. He emerged as a vital part of the team’s rotation, and he carried that production into the postseason. He scored at least 34.0 DraftKings points in four of six games vs. the Grizzlies, including each of the final three contests.
Reaves stands out as a virtual must-play on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s owned a comparable salary and minute projection in just five previous games, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.24 in those contests (per the Trends tool). Reaves is also showing up in 71.3% of optimal lineup simulations on FanDuel, which is easily the highest figure on the slate.
Reaves also grades out well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
Fast Break
Gabe Vincent has not been afraid to let it fly recently. He’s scored at least 20 points in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 30 FanDuel points in each. His salary has started to reflect his recent production, but he still has some appeal at his current price tag.
R.J. Barrett could be a bit undervalued on this slate. He’s currently projected for 18.6% ownership on DraftKings, but he’s showing up in optimal lineup situations more than 22% of the time. Barrett has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, including 48.25 fantasy points in Game 1 vs. the Heat.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler missed Game 2 with an injury, and he’s officially questionable for Game 3. However, it’s hard to imagine him missing two straight playoff games, and head coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters after Friday’s practice that Butler plans to play.
That’s phenomenal news for the Heat. Butler has been arguably the best player in the league during the postseason, putting together monster performances in the upset win over the Bucks. He’s increased his production to 1.36 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 47.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games.
Butler is projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models, but he has the potential to play way more than that if needed. He’s played at least 40.8 minutes in three straight games, including 43.5 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. As long as he isn’t too hobbled, Butler deserves to be treated as one of the top studs on the slate.
Value
Andrew Wiggins is another elite value on FanDuel, where his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Wiggins hasn’t been quite as good as he was during last year’s postseason, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.48 over his past 10 games. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in his past three contests, but he’s shot just 14-38 from the field over that time frame. With some positive shooting regression – and some additional minutes after the Game 2 blowout – Wiggins is poised to deliver big value on his reduced price tag.
Fast Break
LeBron James has been a bit more deferential in his 20th professional season, but he’s still capable of putting together big performances. He had a game with 61.5 FanDuel points vs. the Grizzlies in Round 1, and his average of 1.39 FanDuel points per minute trails only Curry among Saturday’s options. LeBron is another player who could be undervalued for tournaments, with his projected ownership checking in below his optimal lineup percentage.
Josh Hart does all the dirty work for the Knicks. He’s arguably the best rebounding guard in basketball, and he’s averaged more than 10 rebounds over his past three games. He also provides just enough in the other categories, and he nearly triple-doubled in the Knicks’ Game 2 win over the Heat. He finished with 45.25 DraftKings points, giving him plenty of upside for his price tag.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis was absolutely unstoppable in Game 1 vs. the Warriors. He racked up 30 points, 23 boards, five assists, and four blocks, resulting in 76.1 FanDuel points in 43.8 minutes. He wasn’t nearly as effective in Game 2, but the Warriors don’t have a lot of answers for AD on the interior. His Game 1 production may be a bit of an outlier, but Davis has the potential for a monster series in this matchup.
His upside is reflected in our NBA Models, with Davis leading all players in median and ceiling projection. He only has center eligibility on DraftKings, but he makes up for it with an elite 99% Bargain Rating. Ultimately, it’s hard not to build around AD on this slate.
Value
Draymond Green turned in one of his best performances of the postseason in Game 2, finishing with 11 points, 11 boards, and nine assists in just 28.1 minutes. When Green is more involved on offense for the Warriors, good things tend to happen. He had a usage rate of 20.1% in Game 2, and the team is now 3-0 during the playoffs when Green eclipses that mark. When he doesn’t, they’re just 1-4.
With that in mind, expect Draymond to stay aggressive in Game 3. He’s increased his production to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he easily leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Julius Randle returned to the Knicks’ lineup in Game 2, and he didn’t appear to be too limited. He posted a 28.6% usage rate across 37.7 minutes, resulting in 53.5 DraftKings points. Randle averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he remains priced way down at just $7,900 on DraftKings. If he can duplicate his performance from Game 2, he has the potential to be the best value on the entire slate.
Rui Hachimura is worth considering on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s been up and down during the playoffs, but he’s delivered excellent value in his strong performances. That includes Game 2 vs. the Warriors, where he finished with 29.0 FanDuel points in 22.3 minutes.
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NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo is often an overlooked fantasy stud, but he stands out as one of the strongest pay-up options on Saturday’s slate. He’s priced at just $8,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends. Adebayo has been inconsistent during the postseason, but he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 50 fantasy points. He ranks second on the entire FanDuel slate in projected Plus/Minus, trailing only Wiggins.
Value
If you’re looking for a punt play at center, Isaiah Hartenstein is a solid choice. He played 26 minutes in Game 2 and responded with 21.3 FanDuel points. His energy off the bench was instrumental in the win, and he’s projected for another 22.1 minutes on Saturday. Hartenstein has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute for the year, so that’s enough playing time to make him a viable option.
Fast Break
JaMychal Green knocked down six 3-pointers for the Warriors in Game 2. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but it’s possible he’s earned a larger role in the rotation moving forward. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
Source: Fantasy Labs
