After Xi Jinping’s call with Volodymyr Zelensky thrilled many in Europe, now comes a new take: calm down
“They are taking baby steps,” said one EU official of China. “They will move step by step in the right direction, adjusting to the situation on the ground.”
It later emerged that China had abstained from voting on the language in the resolution that applied to Ukraine.
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Now, as the dust settles on Beijing’s diplomatic flurry, other voices around Europe are proffering a more sober assessment: dialogue is good, but let’s not get carried away.
The reality is that China has significant geopolitical reasons for sticking with Russia Noah Barkin, Rhodium Group
“I believe the excitement has less to do with a Chinese change of heart and more a function of the Europeans’ wish to have been handed justification for keeping business as usual with Beijing,” said one senior western European diplomat, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
Both Germany and France have “invested bags of political capital in China”, the diplomat noted, and Beijing’s words on peace are “willingly embraced to achieve tangible results for the struggling German economy”.
The diplomat added: “One swallow does not a summer make.”
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Rather than expecting substantial change from Beijing, Noah Barkin, an analyst of EU-China relations at Rhodium Group, said Europe should be “coming to terms with a new era of close cooperation between Beijing and Moscow and the implications this has for their security”.
“The reality is that China has significant geopolitical reasons for sticking with Russia, and they will continue to shape its approach,” he added.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21. Photo: Sputnik via EPA-EFE
The pessimism about China’s potential role as a peacemaker is particularly acute in many parts of central and eastern Europe.
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In a recent interview with Politico, Czech President Petr Pavel – a former Nato general – said: “I don’t think China has a real interest to resolve the war in a short time.”
Speaking to the South China Morning Post, Pavel’s diplomatic adviser Petr Kolář said that western European efforts to push for China’s help were “a pity”.
“The president of France should know that the policy of appeasement is dangerous. I think that we should understand that democracies are obliged not to give up if we are pushed by authoritarian regimes,” Kolář said.
Ukrainian soldiers near Bakhmut, an eastern city that has seen fierce battles against Russian forces. Photo: AP
Marcin Przychodniak, a former Polish diplomat in Beijing who now analyses China for a Warsaw think tank, said that “the optimism is way over the top”.
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“The main purpose of the call from the Chinese perspective was to enhance the narrative on its mediation and stabilisation capabilities,” Przychodniak said. “To put emphasis on the call is simply another example of wishful thinking in Europe.”
In Latvia, Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, the head of the China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University, said Beijing’s official rhetoric since the call had raised questions about its suitability as a peacemaker.
She noted Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning spoke on Thursday about Nato’s “continued eastward foray into the Asia-Pacific and interference in regional affairs”.
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“Asia is an anchor for peace and stability and a promising land for cooperation and development, not a wrestling ground for geopolitical competition,” Mao said.
Should Ukraine win the war, Bērziņa-Čerenkova said, it would likely become a Nato member as a country within its 1991 borders, as recognised by China. Thus, she said, Beijing’s relentless attacks on Nato suggest that China cannot be considered neutral.
Source: South China Morning Post
