NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, May 8): Buy Low on Julius Randle?
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Lakers have done a good job of keeping Steph Curry in check this series, limiting him to 41.5, 46.5, and 37.0 DraftKings points. However, he did play 32 minutes or less in the past two outings, and Curry is capable of flipping the switch in an instant. The Kings also did a pretty good job of containing Curry until he dropped 50 points and 74.0 DraftKings points on their heads in Game 7.
Curry should undoubtedly see a few more minutes if Game 4 is more competitive, especially with the Warriors down 1-2 in the series. He’s also been the best fantasy producer among Monday’s backcourt options by a wide margin. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season, and no other guard is above 1.14.
Value
Are you feeling lucky? That’s the question you have to ask yourself before locking Jordan Poole into your lineups. He has a wide range of outcomes, going off for 35.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Warriors before sliding all the way down to 15.0 in Game 2.
That said, his ceiling is what makes him such a solid tournament option. If he does have a hot shooting night or plays more than expected, he has the potential to beat his $5,000 price tag by a wide margin. He also stands out as the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, leading all options with a 77% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Gabe Vincent did not have it going for the Heat in Game 3, shooting just 1-8 from the field and 0-4 from downtown. He finished with just 14.0 DraftKings points after logging at least 32.5 in his previous three contests. Still, the Knicks are committed to making Jimmy Butler a distributor, so Vincent should continue to get open looks in this matchup. He’s a solid bounce-back target at $5,200.
Jalen Brunson stands out as a solid option on FanDuel, where he owns an 80% Bargain Rating. His 91% Leverage Rating also ranks first at the position, which means that the field is undervaluing his upside. Brunson has been the Knicks’ clear top option during the playoffs, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.45 over his past 10 games. If they’re going to even the series at two games apiece, they will likely need a big game from the diminutive point guard.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
It was a tale of two halves for D’Angelo Russell in Game 3. He was an absolute monster in the first half, racking up a team-high 21 points with four assists and two rebounds and propelling the Lakers to an 11-point halftime lead. He followed that up with zero points, one rebound, one assist, and three turnovers in the second half, albeit in just 9.3 minutes.
Still, Russell’s excellent first-half contributions propelled him to 34.25 DraftKings points for the evening. It wasn’t the monster performance that he was on-pace for, but Russell has been a steady fantasy contributor for most of the postseason. He’s scored at least 34.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings, including 44.5 in the clinching win vs. the Grizzlies. That gives him a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his current price tag.
Value
Austin Reaves is the Lakers’ other backcourt option, and he hasn’t been quite as impressive as Russell in this series. He’s struggled to 21.75 DraftKings points or fewer in the first three games, shooting just 9-28 from the field. Maybe Reaves is not, in fact, HIM.
The good news for Reaves is that his minutes have been curtailed in the past two contests, both of which were blowouts in the fourth quarter. He played 38.5 minutes in a competitive contest in Game 1, so he should see a boost in playing time if we ever get another even matchup. He’s also been priced down slightly for Game 4, making him a solid buy-low target.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on a bounce-back performance from Reaves:
Fast Break
Like most of the Warriors, Klay Thompson is coming off a subpar showing in Game 3. However, he poured in at least 25 points and 34.1 FanDuel points in his previous two outings, and his $6,900 salary on FanDuel is very reasonable. It results in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and his eight Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.
The Lakers dusted off Lonnie Walker IV in Game 3, and he had a massive impact. He played 24.4 minutes off the bench and responded with 23.5 DraftKings points, so he should continue to play a role moving forward. He probably won’t be that impactful again – he averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute for the year – but he’s dirt cheap across the industry.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler is questionable for the Heat, and he did miss Game 2 of this series. That means there’s a chance that he’s not in the lineup on Monday, but it would be surprising if he doesn’t suit up.
Butler has arguably been the most impressive player during the postseason, and he was an absolute monster in their shocking upset over the Bucks. He followed that up with an excellent performance in Game 1 vs. the Knicks, scoring 49.25 DraftKings points in 43.5 minutes.
Butler wasn’t as impressive in Game 3, but there are still plenty of reasons for optimism moving forward. He posted a usage rate of 32.2% in that contest, which was well above his season average of 25.6%. He should also play more minutes if this game is more competitive, with his 38.12 projected minutes ranking second at the position in our NBA Models.
Value
Andrew Wiggins was one of the few bright spots for the Warriors in Game 3, finishing with 36.25 DraftKings points across 27.8 minutes. It was his second-highest fantasy total of the postseason, despite playing roughly 10 fewer minutes than expected.
Overall, Wiggins has been a steady contributor during the postseason, even though he missed the final two months of the regular season. He’s scored at least 29.75 DraftKings points in eight of 10 contests, and he’s had at least 33.5 in four of his past eight. Wiggins was arguably the Warriors’ second-best player during the title run last season, and they’re going to need him to produce at that level if they’re going to make it out of this series. Wiggins is an absolute steal on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
LeBron James has reached a point where he’s now cheaper than Butler on FanDuel. He hasn’t been quite as impressive as Butler during the postseason, but he’s still been the better fantasy producer over the course of the year. He’s averaged 1.39 FanDuel points per minute, while Butler has averaged 1.29. He’s also projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, and his 11 Pro Trends rank first at the position. Add in a higher Perfect% and less projected ownership, and LeBron is the clear top option if paying up at small forward on FanDuel.
Josh Hart is another excellent value on FanDuel, with his $6,300 salary resulting in an 87% Bargain Rating. He’s posted double-doubles in back-to-back games, scoring at least 33.4 FanDuel points in each, and he was just one assist shy of a triple-double in Game 2. Hart’s elite rebounding production for a wing player gives him a very solid floor, and his scoring and assist potential give him some upside as well.
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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
It has been a postseason to forget for Julius Randle, who has struggled with both injuries and ineffectiveness. However, Randle’s playing time has trended in the right direction over the past two contests. He returned to the Knicks’ lineup in Game 2 vs. the Heat and responded with 53.5 DraftKings points over 37.7 minutes. He wasn’t nearly as effective in Game 3, finishing with just 30.0 DraftKings points, but he did see another 38 minutes.
If Randle is going to continue to see that much playing time, he’s an absolute steal at just $8,000. He was priced closer to $10,000 during the regular season, and he averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That trails only Curry, LeBron, and Anthony Davis on this slate, all three of which are significantly more expensive than Randle. As long as Randle doesn’t have another disastrous shooting performance – he was 4-15 in his last outing – he should deliver excellent value at his current price tag.
Value
Draymond Green was dreadful for the Warriors in Game 3, managing just two points, two rebounds, and four assists for 14.5 DraftKings points. The only thing he could do on the floor was foul people, racking up five in just 22.7 minutes.
Green is clearly not the same player that he was in his prime, and it’s fair to wonder if this is his final go-around with the Warriors. However, he’s still been more effective than usual during the postseason, averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
His price tag has dipped to just $6,000 for Game 4, making him one of the best values on the slate. Before his Game 3 disaster, Green had scored at least 29.5 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he had at least 40.0 in three of them. His current salary comes with a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he leads all players in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Rui Hachimura has been a boom-or-bust option during the playoffs. He has three games with at least 30.75 DraftKings points and four games with 15.0 or less. That said, his poor games aren’t going to kill your lineups at just $3,900, and he’s likely to find the optimal lineup when he hits his ceiling. That’s the definition of a GPP play.
Caleb Martin owns a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he finished with 35.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 vs. the Knicks. He definitely saw a boost in production with Butler out of the lineup, but he has three other games with at least 27.75 DraftKings points during the postseason. That gives him just a smidge of value at his current salary.
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NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
LeBron will forever be The King, but Anthony Davis is officially the guy pulling all the strings in Los Angeles. He’s been instrumental in their two wins vs. the Warriors, racking up 59.75 and 75.25 DraftKings points. Golden State has seemingly no answer for him on the interior, and Davis is also dominating on the glass and protecting the rim. He has at least three blocked shots in all three contests, and he’s pulled down at least 13 boards in two of them.
Nothing should fundamentally change for Davis in Game 4. He’s too big and athletic for the rest of the Warriors’ big men, so he should be able to control this contest. He owns the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and his $10,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a 99% Bargain Rating.
Lakers-Warriors also stands out as the clear preferred target among Monday’s contests. That game has a total of 227.5, while Knicks-Heat is a full 20 points lower.
Value
Isaiah Hartenstein was a big part of the Knicks’ victory over the Heat in Game 2, providing the team with a much-needed burst of energy off the bench. He finished with 19.75 DraftKings points in 26 minutes, which was enough to provide value at his minimal price tag.
Hartenstein followed that up with another 26 minutes in Game 3, playing more minutes than starter Mitchell Robinson in both contests. Hartenstein has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s a solid punt play at $3,500.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo erupted for 56.5 DraftKings points in the closeout win over the Bucks, but he’s been pretty quiet vs. the Knicks. Still, his ability to contribute in every category gives him plenty of viability. He leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $7,700 salary comes with an 87% Bargain Rating.
Kevon Looney has been heavily limited over the past two games, but perhaps he returns to his usual workload in Game 4. If that happens, he’s a steal at just $5,400 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Looney had 47.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Lakers. In fact, he has at least 37.5 DraftKings points in five straight games with at least 29.5 minutes.
Source: Fantasy Labs
