The US Could Hurt Ukraine's Offensive by Exerting Too Much Pressure
Global expectations for Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive are high.
But a former Army general told Insider that too much Western pressure could tank the attack.
"I would reject the talk that Ukraine's only got one shot," said Ben Hodges, a retired Army general.
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As the world awaits Ukraine's next military move, pressure is mounting for the war-torn country to deliver a quantifiable victory. But global expectations of a triumph could torpedo the offensive before it even begins, a former Army general told Insider.
While the exact timing of Ukraine's much-anticipated counteroffensive is still unknown, military experts told Insider earlier this month that the assault could start as soon as the coming weeks. Following months of brutal fighting in the country's eastern region, expectations of what Ukraine can — and should — accomplish during the impending assault are rising among the country's Western supporters.
"Regardless of what happens on the ground, this has to be seen as a success to the Ukrainian people and US and European politicians," Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist, told Insider earlier this month.
The idea that this coming offensive is critical to an eventual Ukrainian victory is an increasingly popular one in the lead-up to its launch.
"There are many in the US and NATO who are concerned this is going to be a forever war, that it will go on for years and the West will continue to pour money into it without much progress," said Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor with the Center for Strategic and International Studies' security program.
The US alone has poured tens of billions of dollars into Ukraine's cause since the conflict began more than a year ago, while other Western countries have similarly donated essential equipment. A massive Ukrainian land grab or the reclamation of a key region from Russia could assuage the US and other NATO allies that there is an end in sight to this war, military experts told Insider.
Some Ukrainian defense officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have even expressed fears that the counteroffensive may not live up to global expectations, telling The Washington Post this week that predictions of a consequential turning of the tides may be overhyped.
But framing this offensive as make-or-break for Ukraine sets a dangerous precedent, said Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general and former commander of US Army Europe.
Ukrainian soldiers from the 28th Brigade practice using Soviet-made AGS-17 automatic grenade launchers. Photo by Scott Peterson/Getty Images
The stakes of Ukraine's plight are bigger than just defeating Russia
"I would reject the talk that Ukraine's only got one shot, that if it doesn't achieve a knockout blow then that's it and everyone will say 'too bad,' and stop supporting them," Hodges told Insider.
The idea that aid to Ukraine will disappear should this offensive underperform, he said, is a narrative put forth by politicians and players who "don't want to see Ukraine win," or those who are increasingly eager to bring the war to a quick end.
"We've spent billions of dollars, supposedly because we believed in what Ukraine was fighting for," Hodges said.
The war in Ukraine is about more than two fighting countries, he argued, and Western countries should be assisting Ukraine in order to preserve international rules-based order, and respect for sovereignty, transparency, and human rights on a global level.
"If we're not willing to stick together and help Ukraine defeat Russia, then truly we don't actually value those things," Hodges said.
He attributed growing Western apprehension about the war to several possible factors, including an inability to believe that Russia really could lose, as well as misplaced fears about the country using a nuclear weapon, the chances of which, he said, remain low.
"I think the administration has a lot of people in very high places that are not committed to Ukraine absolutely winning," Hodges said, chiding the Biden administration for failing thus far to clearly define what the US' strategic objective is in aiding Ukraine.
But even in spite of the monumental pressure Ukraine faces in the weeks ahead, military experts told Insider they were cautiously optimistic about the country's prospects heading into its counteroffensive, especially given Russia's weakened, disorganized forces and Ukraine's "superior" willpower.
"The only thing I think that can screw this up is if the west exerts so much pressure on Ukraine and it causes them to stop short of a total victory," Hodges said.
Source: Business Insider
