Putin May Be Losing a Key NATO Ally
The presidential election in Turkey on Sunday has raised questions about the future of the country's relations with Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, is a close ally to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is running against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey's main opposition candidate and the head of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP).
Putin asserted the importance of his country's relations with its Black Sea neighbor last month during a virtual ceremony with Erdogan, inaugurating Turkey's first nuclear plant. The $20 billion Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant was built and owned by Rosatom, a Russian state-owned nuclear corporation.
Emphasizing his country's energy investment and noting that a new sector of Turkey's already ailing economy is being created, Putin slightly hinted at which presidential candidate he would endorse.
"The construction of the first nuclear power plant in Turkey and...the creation of a new, advanced, high–tech industry from scratch is another convincing example of how much you, President Erdogan, are doing for your country, for the growth of its economy, for all Turkish citizens," Putin said during the live-streamed inaugural ceremony, according to the Kremlin's website. "I want to say it clearly: You are able to set ambitious goals and confidently move toward their implementation."
The Akkuyu plant, located in the Mersin province, is supposed to operate four power units with a total capacity of 4,800 megawatts, according to a statement on the Kremlin's website. It is expected to deliver around 10 percent of Turkey's electricity needs, according to World Nuclear News.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit in Samarkand on September 16, 2022. The presidential election in Turkey on Sunday has raised questions about the future of the country’s relations with Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin is a close ally to President Recep Tayyip Edrogan who is running against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey’s main opposition candidate and the head of the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP). ALEXANDR DEMYANCHUK/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
Kilicdaroglu's Chances of Winning the Election
A poll by Konda, a research and consultancy company in Turkey, showed the opposition candidate leading with 49.3 percent support, while Erdogan has 43.7 percent. The results of the poll, which was carried out May 6-7 and cited by Reuters, suggest that Erdogan would lack the majority needed to win the first round, which means that both men might face each other in a run-off on May 28.
Bekir Agirdir, manager of Konda, told news website T24 that Kilicdaroglu's chances of winning the election increased after Muharrem Ince, another presidential candidate and the former member of the National Assembly of Turkey, withdrew from the race.
"I would not be surprised if he [Kilicdaroglu] got 51 percent," said Agirdir. Opinion polls cited by Radio Free Europe/ Radio Free Liberty also revealed that Kilicdaroglu has a slight lead over Erdogan. Meanwhile, The Guardian reported on Thursday that Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Erdogan by about two points.
Will Turkish Policies Change Towards Russia and Ukraine?
Russia has been focused on strengthening economic ties with Turkey with bilateral trade between both countries surpassing $62 billion as of 2022, according to CNN. Ties between both countries also deepened on a military level when Turkey bought S-400 missiles from Russia in 2019, CNN reported. Turkey has also been a hub for other Russian investments including real estate and a safe haven for thousands of Russians who fled from their country following Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NPR reported.
Even if Kilicdaroglu wins, Turkey's policy towards Ukraine and Russia will likely remain if Kilicdaroglu wins, according to James Jeffrey, former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey and chairman of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center.
He told Newsweek in an email on Thursday that the Turkish Russian policy will remain in terms of ensuring "Russian expansionism is defeated, but avoid overly provoking Russia or undercutting economic ties valuable to both Ankara and Moscow."
Turkey's continuous policy towards Russia is partially due to its high dependence on Russian energy and investments that are contributing to its struggling economy. Turkey receives about 45 percent of its natural gas from Russia along with massive amounts of coal and oil, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Iliya Kusa, an international relations analyst with the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, wrote in a recent report published by the Wilson Center that Kilicdaroglu doesn't have an entirely clear position on Ukraine which has been fighting Russia in an ongoing war that Putin launched in February of last year. However, the opposition candidate's foreign policy advisor, Unal Cevikoz said that Kilicdaroglu will maintain Turkey's role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia if he wins the general election, TVP World reported on Thursday.
Turkey has long played an active mediator role between Kyiv and Moscow with the country brokering a grain export deal that both sides signed on, easing a global food crisis that stemmed from Putin's war. Ankara also supplied drones to the war-torn country, with the Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey, Vasyl Bodnar, announcing last year the construction of a factory in his country owned by Baykar, a Turkish company that produces "Bayraktars" drones, which has been used against Russian troops.
"General outlines of Erdogan's policy will continue [if Kilicdaroglu wins]—support for Ukraine (Russia not winning and thereby gaining control of the whole northern Black Sea is an existential Turkish interest) and mediator role," said Jeffrey. "Kilicdaroglu may well like Erdogan [to] not apply NATO sanctions on certain Russian trade and financial actions as Turks see that as a major blow to their currently struggling economy."
Will Turkish relations improve?
Though Turkey sent drones to Ukraine, it remains on the same page with Russia in regards to opposing some values of the West, according to Radio Free Europe/ Radio Free Liberty. But Kilicdaroglu seeks to rebuild relations with Europe and the United States which were undermined during the Turkish president's term.
Improved relations with the West could also open the door for Sweden to quickly join NATO— a move that Putin opposes and that has long been stalled by Erdogan.
"Kilicdaroglu likely will move rapidly to approve Sweden's NATO candidacy," said Jeffrey, who added that the opposition candidate pledged to tone down his country's tensions with the U.S. in regard to Eastern European policies.
Jeffrey also said, "Kilicdaroglu like Erdogan will probably protect near abroad interests vis a vis Greeks, PKK and Armenia, which means some friction with [the] US. But even if Erdogan is re-elected, relations likely will improve. He has been on a charm offense with Israel, Arab states and the U.S. for several years now and much of his recent harsh anti-western rhetoric is all electioneering in a country where the U.S. (and Europe) are unpopular."
Meanwhile, Turkish-Russian relations expert Evren Balta, Chair of the Department of International Relations at Ozyegin University, told Newsweek on Thursday in an email that a Kilicdaroglu victory will "symbolize" a return of stronger Turkish relations with the West.
"It will be Turkey's return to the West moment—specifically in terms of normative values that the Western alliance represent. This is a coalition that came together to re-democratize Turkey," said Balta.
What could Putin lose if Erdogan is defeated?
Putin has long found Erdogan to be reliable for having tough rhetoric and policies and for having experience in dealing with the Russians, but whether he would take Kilicdaroglu seriously remains in question, according to Jeffrey.
"Putin likes to deal with leaders he thinks are strong and predictable even when they are bombing his allies in Syria (Netanyahu) or opposing Russia and allies directly or indirectly in Ukraine, Caucasus, Libya and northwest Syria (Erdogan in all). That is I do not think based on direct knowledge that Putin thinks Kilicdaroglu will be tougher on him than Erdogan was [in certain situations].... But Putin again likes to deal with people he knows and thinks like him. That's Erdogan not Kilicdaroglu," said Jeffrey.
Meanwhile, Eleonora Tafuro, a senior research fellow at the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Centre at ISPI, told Newsweek in an email that even though a close partnership between Putin and Erdogan was important for bilateral relations, "reducing the relationship to a bromance between Putin and Erdogan would be a mistake."
"Putin certainly endorses Erdogan...but would be ready to work with Kilicdaroglu, too. Relations with Turkey are too vital for him, especially now. And he's unlikely to lose them, even if Erdogan leaves power," said Tafuro.
Newsweek reached out by email to the Russian foreign affairs ministry for comment.
Source: Newsweek
