Russia-Ukraine War
Ukrainian marines concealing a howitzer before firing at a Russian target in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine on Wednesday.
KYIV, Ukraine — When President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said in a BBC interview that he was delaying the counteroffensive to retake Ukrainian land from Russia, it set off immediate debate about what he really meant. His reasoning was that although his troops were ready, starting without what he considers adequate weaponry would mean too many Ukrainian lives lost.
For Ukrainian analysts, the answer to what he was thinking was simple.
“It’s true,” said Taras Chmut, a former military officer who heads Come Back Alive, a charitable foundation that provides military supplies for the Ukrainian Army. “The amount we gathered in recent months is still not enough for a successful counteroffensive.”
Despite the donations of billions of dollars of weaponry from the West, he said the Ukrainian Army still did not have enough of everything, from ammunition and artillery shells to armored vehicles and air defense systems. He echoed the concerns of military commanders and civilians that Ukraine’s air defenses were insufficient after Russia had recently increased its use of guided aviation bombs that could prove costly for Ukrainian forces.
“It is the decision of the senior military command whether to accept the risks,” he said.
But others offered different theories.
Maria Zolkina, the head of regional security and conflict studies at the Kyiv-based Democratic Initiatives Foundation, said there was probably a dual purpose to Mr. Zelensky’s message.
“It was part political statement to make the Western partners speed up those supplies,” she said. But Mr. Zelensky was probably also looking to manage Western expectations in case the counteroffensive “was not as successful as expected.”
In recent days, Ukrainian officials have already sought to manage expectations over the anticipated counteroffensive, saying that there may not be a single conclusive battle and that the public and Western allies should dial down expectations of success.
“It looks like we are in a Hollywood movie, where a great battle for Middle-earth begins, and one battle for Gondor will decide everything. It doesn’t happen like that,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Mr. Zelensky, making a reference to the tale of “The Lord of the Rings.”
Image A woman in front of her home, which was damaged by a Russian missile, on Thursday in Sloviansk, Ukraine. Credit... Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
And then there is the possibility of intentional misdirection, to try to catch the Russians by surprise.
“I would not exclude that it was an informational trick as Ukraine is trying to hide its preparations,” Ms. Zolkina said.
Part of the success of two Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions last fall was because the Ukrainian military let it be known that it was planning a counterattack in the south, which led Russia to move troops to the south, leaving its defenses undermanned in the northeast. Spotting the weakness, Ms. Zolkina said, the Ukrainian military command planned an attack in the northeast, surprising the Russians and retaking territory.
She said Kyiv was focused on keeping Russia guessing, and it seemed to be working. A Russian order to civilians and workers to evacuate the territory it occupies around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, she said, was a sign that the Russians did not know where the next attack was going to come from.
Some Russians also said Mr. Zelensky was dissembling.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner private military company that is leading the Russian assault to capture Bakhmut, dismissed Mr. Zelensky’s comment as disingenuous in an audio message posted on Telegram by his press service.
“The counteroffensive is in full swing,” he claimed in the message.
Mr. Prigozhin, known for his outspokenness and often-self-serving commentary, said that Ukrainian forces were intent on first attacking Wagner’s forces in and around Bakhmut and then would go on to target the southern region of Zaporizhzhia, as well the Russian cities of Bryansk and Belgorod that have been logistic and command hubs for the Russian military.
“Those units that have undergone the necessary training, received weapons, equipment, tanks and everything else,” he said. “And after they try their strength, stretch their muscles, then the north and south directions will be in play.”
Two Russian military bloggers embedded with Wagner forces reported that Ukrainian forces had made advances on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut, forcing Russian troops and Wagner fighters to retreat in several places Thursday.
“In the next 24 hours, apparently, the Kyiv regime will begin to increase its efforts in the south,” the popular Russian military blogger, Yevgeny Poddubny, wrote on his Telegram channel. “We will assume that the enemy counteroffensive has begun.”
Oleksandr Chubko contributed reporting from Kyiv, and Anatoly Kurmanaev from Berlin.
Source: The New York Times
