Mariners Extra: Five lingering questions as M’s approach critical stretch
After an off day Thursday, the Mariners close out this road trip with three games in Anaheim over the weekend, starting with a marquee matchup Friday night between the Mariners’ Luis Castillo and the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani.
This is must-see TV … as long as you remember your Apple TV+ password. (Call it a QWERTY game.)
Ahead of this critical series, here are five questions facing the Mariners right now:
1. Can they flip the switch again?
At 30-31, the Mariners are already 10 games back of the first-place Rangers in the AL West. They were embarrassed in Texas to open this road trip last week, and they can’t afford a similar showing this weekend against another divisional rival in Anaheim.
It was mid-June last year when the Mariners hit rock bottom, falling to 29-39 following a loss to the Angels in Seattle on June 19.
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If you’re inclined to have a glass-half-full outlook, well, the Mariners haven’t dug themselves that big of a hole this season. There is still time for a turnaround, and there are still encouraging signs that this team is capable of that (you just have to squint sometimes).
From a pessimistic point of view, well, the Mariners haven’t exactly played inspiring baseball over the past week. They played maybe their best all-around game of the season in a 4-1 victory at San Diego on Tuesday, only to get blasted 10-3 on Wednesday afternoon.
That 24-hour swing nicely encapsulated the up-and-down extremes of the past month.
The Mariners can’t bank on another 14-game winning streak to save their season. That’s not realistic. But their pitching is too good and their offense has too much potential for them to be this maddening and this inconsistent, and they need to have a sense of urgency to get things turned in the right direction soon … or this season could get away from them quickly.
2. Will they ever get the strikeouts under control?
Mariners hitters rank third in MLB in strikeouts, with 592 entering Thursday, behind only the Twins (641) and Giants (612).
Team officials entered the season cautiously optimistic that this new “balanced” lineup would cut down on Seattle’s strikeout rate of 22.8% from 2022. Instead, the strikeout rate has increased to 25.9%.
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Four of Seattle’s hitters rank among MLB’s top 10 strikeout leaders: Teoscar Hernandez (first, with 83), Jarred Kelenic (fifth, 76), Eugenio Suarez (sixth, 75) and Julio Rodriguez (10th, 72).
You could live with some extra strikeouts if the payoff was some pop … but the Mariners rank just 21st in MLB in home runs with 63 (only one more than the lowly A’s).
So, yeah, it seems like a pretty obvious statement: The Mariners need to revive their offense, and the best way to do that is to put more balls in play.
3. Teo Time?
Julio is looking more like himself over the past two weeks.
Could Hernandez be the next Mariners bat to break out of his early-season slump?
The Mariners’ prized offseason acquisition, Hernandez has not lived up to the billing so far, and he’s been dropped down to the bottom third of the lineup at times over the past couple weeks.
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But he has shown some flashes of a potential breakthrough, hitting .389 with a 1.117 OPS in the first five games of this road trip, with three consecutive multi-hit games (and he’s even drawn two walks this week).
Better yet for the Mariners, Hernandez has a strong track record in the second half of the season. Here are his career OPS numbers by month:
March/April: .752
May: .670
June: .845
July: .871
August: .814
September/October: .872
An encouraging sign of what’s to come? If the M’s are going to turn things around offensively, that’s exactly what they need.
4. George Kirby needs to walk some dudes. (Uh, really?)
Yes, really.
It would be prudent for the Mariners’ 25-year-old budding star to throw fewer strikes. That’s a weird statement in a lot of ways — Kirby lives to throw strikes, and throwing strikes is a big part of the Mariners organizational pitching ethos.
Kirby, in fact, throws more strikes than anyone in MLB — exactly 50% of his pitches have been a strike this year — but that’s not always a good thing. Hitters, at times, appear to be too comfortable in the batter’s box against him, knowing there’s a very good chance they’ll get a pitch in the zone to swing at.
And, indeed, Kirby ranks No. 7 in MLB in opponents’ swing rate, at 52.8%, according to FanGraphs.
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That figure wouldn’t be so troubling if Kirby induced more swings-and-misses. But he only ranks in the 14th percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
Case in point: Facing the Padres’ Gary Sanchez on Wednesday, Kirby got ahead in the count 0-1 on a slider, and then threw an elevated fastball that caught too much of the plate — Sanchez was ready for it and hit it out for a game-changing three-run homer.
It was the second time in three starts that Kirby has been lit up (sandwiched around a masterful performance against the Yankees last week).
You’ve no doubt heard the phrase “effectively wild” to describe some pitchers with erratic control. Well, Kirby is the exact opposite — at times, he’s become ineffectively in command.
So, yes, one humble suggestion here is for him to stop being so predictably in the zone. Challenge right-handed hitters inside more regularly — in off the plate if necessary. Take advantage of your reputation as a consistent strike-thrower and see if you can get hitters to chase pitchers just out of the zone from time to time.
Kirby is a future ace, and you have to love his fearless approach. That’s what makes him great. His next step: Don’t be afraid to issue a walk every now and then.
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5. Can the bullpen be even better going forward?
The Mariners bullpen was good without Andres Munoz over the past two months, ranking third in MLB in FanGraphs WAR (3.0). But it should be even that much better with Munoz back from a long stint on the injured list because of a strained shoulder muscle.
One of the best relievers in baseball in the second half of 2022, Munoz pitched a scoreless eighth inning on Tuesday. He struck out two of the three batters he faced, including Fernando Tatis Jr. on a 100-mph fastball.
Paul Sewald ranks among the most effective closers in baseball right now, and the surprising successes of Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, Tayler Saucedo and Trevor Gott (currently on IL) — to go along with Matt Brash’s incredible strikeout rate — give Seattle a deep and dominant ‘pen that should give the Mariners confidence they can rediscover the one-run magic that has been their calling card the past two seasons.
Stat of the week
96
Shohei Ohtani’s 96 strikeouts, in 71 innings, are the third-most in MLB this season (behind Kevin Gausman and Spencer Strider, with 113 each). Luis Castillo’s 82 strikeouts for the Mariners rank 14th in baseball this season.
Prospect watch
Emerson Hancock pitched six scoreless innings for Double-A Arkansas on Tuesday, allowing just four hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. The Mariners’ 2020 first-round pick has a 6-2 record with a 5.44 ERA in 11 starts this season and a 57-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 46 1/3 innings.
Who’s hot
Over his last three starts, Castillo has allowed only one run in 19 innings, with 24 strikeouts and five walks.
Who’s not
Over his last two starts, Bryce Miller has allowed a combined 19 hits and 15 earned runs (over seven total innings) in back-to-back losses to the Yankees and Rangers. The rookie right-hander is scheduled to start Sunday in Anaheim.
Source: The Seattle Times
